The Trade Desk: A Modest Proposal

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Now, The Trade Desk (TTD +2.96%). A curious entity, wouldn’t you say? Like a particularly clever goblin who’s figured out how to sell slightly used rainbows. It’s taken a bit of a tumble recently – a 55% decline in the last year, and a rather undignified splat after its last earnings report. Missed its own estimations, you see. A bit like a wizard miscalculating a simple levitation spell. Embarrassing, mostly. But, as any seasoned bargain hunter knows, sometimes the best treasures are found amongst the dropped wands and singed spellbooks.

It’s not merely missteps, mind you. The world, it seems, has decided to throw a few extra spanners into the works. Unexpected macro-challenges, they call them. As if running a business wasn’t enough like herding cats without the added complication of… well, everything. Let’s see what’s gone awry, and whether this particular griffin might yet take flight.

What Ails The Trade Desk?

The trouble, it seems, revolves around Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the increasingly fortified walls erected by the larger players. A bit like the Guild of Alchemists deciding that only they can sell potions, and everyone else must stick to polishing cauldrons.

Their Kokai platform, an AI-driven attempt at streamlining ad buying, hasn’t exactly been a roaring success. Customers, it appears, miss being able to see all the dials and levers. It’s like giving a seasoned navigator a map that only shows vaguely in the direction of ‘up’. They crave control, the ability to tweak and fiddle. Automation, it turns out, isn’t always the answer. Sometimes, people just like doing things.1

And then there’s the walled gardens. Alphabet and Amazon, in particular, are becoming rather possessive of their digital acreage. They favour their own ad platforms, naturally. It’s the way of things. A bit like a dragon hoarding all the gold. Perfectly logical, from the dragon’s perspective. Less so if you’re trying to sell slightly used rainbows.

Growth, predictably, has slowed. A respectable $2.9 billion in revenue, yes, but only an 18% increase. Down from 26% the previous year. And the fourth quarter? A mere 14%. The trajectory, shall we say, is becoming… less enthusiastic. It’s fallen back to levels last seen when everyone briefly thought the world was ending in 2020. A sobering thought.

A Phoenix From The Ashes?

However, hope, as they say, springs eternal. And investors, bless their optimistic hearts, are starting to see a glimmer. The Trade Desk remains profitable. A net income of $443 million, growing by 13%. The profit growth slowed because of taxes, not because the business is failing. It’s a distinction worth noting.2

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Looking Ahead

AI concerns, both internal and external, and the walled gardens of the digital giants, have certainly hampered The Trade Desk. It’s a tricky situation, like trying to navigate a labyrinth blindfolded.

But investors have reason to be hopeful. Revenue growth continues, albeit at a slower pace. And if those OpenAI rumours prove true, the company will have a stake in the future of digital advertising. When considering its falling valuation, investors have good reason to think The Trade Desk is a rare bargain opportunity. A slightly tarnished rainbow, perhaps, but a rainbow nonetheless. And who doesn’t like a good bargain?

1

It’s a deeply ingrained human trait, this need to tinker. Even the gods, according to some accounts, spent a considerable amount of time rearranging constellations simply because they were bored.

2

Taxes, of course, are the price we pay for a civilized society. Or, at least, for roads and the occasional dragon-slaying expedition.

3

A true bargain, however, is a myth. Like a perfectly honest politician or a dragon who prefers tea to treasure.

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2026-03-16 09:52