The Steadfast Market and Transient Politics

by

It is a curious thing, the human heart, how easily it is swayed by the ephemeral winds of political fancy. One recalls a tale, recounted by Alice Schroeder in her biography of Warren Buffett, of a courtship shadowed by pronouncements of impending economic doom. The father of Miss Susie Thompson, a man named Doc, possessed a conviction that the market, like so many autumn leaves, was destined to fall. He spoke of stocks as mere slips of paper, devoid of intrinsic worth. A gloomy forecast, delivered, one imagines, over a game of chess or a glass of something amber, and offered, no doubt, with the best of intentions.

Yet, the market, like a stubborn river, continues to flow. In the year following the nuptials of Mr. Buffett and Miss Thompson, 1953, the Standard & Poor’s 500 began its journey at a modest 26.18. A decade hence, it had ascended, a quiet but resolute climb. And as of this recent January, the 16th day, 2026, it stands at 6,940.01 – a twenty-six-fold increase from those pessimistic predictions. A testament, perhaps, not to the brilliance of any particular administration, but to the enduring power of capital itself, and the relentless march of human endeavor.

It is tempting, of course, to attribute every fluctuation, every rise and fall, to the policies enacted within the halls of power. And, indeed, a president’s actions can cast long shadows across certain sectors. But to believe that one man, or one party, can truly dictate the course of the market is to indulge in a comforting, yet ultimately illusory, simplicity. The true engine of wealth creation lies not in grand pronouncements, but in the quiet accumulation of value, the persistent innovation, and the unwavering faith of those who choose to participate.

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One observes, upon examining the records of the past ten presidencies, a remarkable consistency. Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and now, Joseph Biden – each has presided over periods of both prosperity and challenge. And yet, the market, like a seasoned traveler, has consistently navigated these turbulent waters, emerging stronger on the other side. The numbers, presented below, speak for themselves.

President S&P 500 on Date of Inauguration S&P 500 Gain During Term S&P 500 Return Since Inauguration
Jimmy Carter 102.97 28% 6,639%
Ronald Reagan 131.65 118% 5,172%
George H.W. Bush 286.63 51% 2,321%
Bill Clinton 433.37 210% 1,501%
George W. Bush 1,342.45 -40% 417%
Barack Obama 805.22 182% 762%
Donald Trump I 2,271.31 70% 206%
Joe Biden 3,851.85 56% 80%
Donald Trump II 5,996.66 ?% 16%

One notes, with a touch of melancholy, that even during periods of economic hardship, the market possesses an uncanny ability to recover. The presidency of George W. Bush, for instance, witnessed a significant downturn, yet the S&P 500 ultimately quintupled since his inauguration. A reminder that patience, and a long-term perspective, are virtues often overlooked in the pursuit of immediate gratification.

The future, of course, remains uncertain. Three years lie ahead, and anything can happen. But history suggests that the market, like a steadfast ship, will continue to navigate the turbulent waters, guided not by the whims of politicians, but by the enduring principles of value and growth. To abstain from participation, to sit idly by, is to relinquish a claim on the greatest wealth-creating engine in human history. A curious choice, indeed, for one who professes an interest in securing a prosperous future.

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2026-01-23 13:33