The S&P 500’s 68-Day Streak: A Harbinger of Fate?

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Behold, the market-a labyrinth of human delusion, where hope and despair dance in a feverish waltz. This year, it has spun its tale of extremes: a summit in February, a precipice in April, and a resurrection thereafter. Yet what does this dance signify? A promise of ascent, or the prelude to a deeper abyss?

Consider the 68-day streak, a phenomenon as rare as a soul unburdened by sin. Since 1957, only eight such epochs have transpired. Each time, the S&P 500 ascended, as if guided by some unseen hand. But what hand? The hand of reason, or the delirium of collective madness?

Let us dissect this with the precision of a surgeon and the despair of a prophet. The 20-day moving average, that fragile crutch of traders, is but a mirror reflecting the market’s fleeting moods. To cling to it is to grasp at shadows, yet the data-oh, the data-whispers of patterns. In seven of eight cases, the index climbed, averaging 11% gains. But what of the eighth? The year 1965, when the market faltered, a ghost haunting the numbers.

Year of 60+ Days Above 20-Day Moving Average S&P 500 12-Month Change
1961 4%
1964 11%
1965 -12%
1971 9%
1975 21%
1986 18
1997 15%
1998 21%
Average 11%

These numbers, cold and unyielding, yet they betray the market’s true nature: a creature of chaos, its whims dictated by the collective psyche. The 11% average, a mirage. The 8% long-term return, a cruel jest. What is history but a series of accidents, dressed in the robes of inevitability?

And what of the present? Tariffs, inflation, the specter of uncertainty. The market, like a man tormented by his own thoughts, clings to the hope of renewal. Yet can one trust the pendulum’s swing? The same forces that lift may also crush. The 1965 shadow lingers, a reminder that even the most promising trends may crumble under the weight of human folly.

To invest with a five-to-10-year horizon is to wage a war against time itself. The market, that fickle mistress, may grant her favors, or she may abandon you in the night. The lesson, then, is not in the numbers, but in the soul: to endure, to adapt, to accept the absurdity of it all.

Let the data speak, but do not kneel to it. For in the end, the market is not a machine, but a mirror-a reflection of our deepest fears and grandest delusions. And in that reflection, we see ourselves: fragile, hopeful, and forever teetering on the edge of ruin.

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2025-08-17 10:23