The Slow Climb of the Market

by

The market, they say, is a measure of things. Not just wealth, but of hope, of striving, of the quiet desperation that settles on a man’s shoulders when he thinks on the future. The S&P 500, a tally of five hundred companies, is the yardstick by which we measure this national breath. Tom Lee, a man who watches these numbers like a farmer watches the sky, believes it will reach fifteen thousand by the end of the decade. A bold claim, perhaps, but one built on the shifting sands of demographics and the cold logic of machines.

For those who wish to share in this climb, to place a small wager on the future, there is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. It is not a get-rich-quick scheme, mind you. It is a slow, steady accumulation, like a man planting a tree, knowing he may not live to see its full shade. But it is a share in the growth, in the labor of others, and that has value.

A Gathering of Giants

This ETF, it simply holds a piece of those five hundred companies, a reflection of the American economy in all its messy glory. Tech companies weigh heaviest, as they do in the modern landscape, but there’s a bit of everything – the makers of steel, the purveyors of groceries, the dreamers who chase the next innovation. A small portion of each, woven together, forming a whole.

The largest holdings, the giants that cast the longest shadows, are these:

  1. Nvidia: 7.7%
  2. Apple: 6.8%
  3. Microsoft: 6.1%
  4. Alphabet: 5.6%
  5. Amazon: 3.8%
  6. Broadcom: 2.7%
  7. Meta Platforms: 2.4%
  8. Tesla: 2.1%
  9. Berkshire Hathaway: 1.5%
  10. Eli Lilly: 1.4%

The market has a memory, a long, slow reckoning. Over the last twenty years, it has risen four hundred and thirty-nine percent, a solid, dependable climb. With the dividends reinvested, that climb becomes a surge, a seven-hundred percent return. A man who invested five hundred dollars a month for twenty years, diligently, quietly, would now find himself with over thirty-eight thousand dollars. It’s not a fortune, but it’s a start, a foundation for something more.

And even when times are hard, when the land is parched and the crops fail, the market has a way of righting itself. Since 1957, through ten recessions, it has always risen, eventually. A fifteen-year holding period, they say, guarantees a return. It doesn’t erase the pain of the downturn, but it offers a promise of renewal.

The Winds of Change

Tom Lee believes two forces will drive this continued ascent: the Millennials, stepping into their earning years, and the relentless march of artificial intelligence. The Millennials, a generation burdened by debt and uncertainty, are also poised to inherit a vast fortune, eighty trillion dollars worth, the largest transfer of wealth in history. And the world is facing a labor shortage, eighty million workers short by 2030, forcing companies to seek efficiency through machines.

He sees a parallel to the past, to the labor shortages of the mid-20th century, when technology stocks soared. It’s a simple equation, he argues: fewer workers, greater demand for automation, higher profits for technology companies. Whether he is right or not, only time will tell.

The bottom line is this: the market is a gamble, yes, but it is also a reflection of our collective efforts, our hopes and dreams. An S&P 500 index fund is not a path to instant riches, but a way to participate in the slow, steady growth of the nation. And the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with its low expense ratio of 0.03%, is a sensible choice for those who wish to join the climb. It’s a small price to pay for a share in the future, a piece of the American dream.

Read More

2026-02-07 12:32