Ah, the SEC. That glorious, slow-moving machine of red tape and indecision. Bloomberg analysts have blessed us with their latest predictions about the chances of approval for those much-anticipated crypto ETFs, and, surprise, surprise, the odds are looking… reasonably good. If by “reasonably good,” you mean somewhere between “a safe bet” and “don’t hold your breath.”
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, two analysts who have clearly mastered the art of forecasting the unpredictable, have gone ahead and estimated the likelihood of approval for various ETFs under review by the SEC. You know, the ones that could change the course of crypto history—or just be a really good way to waste your time watching deadlines slip by. But I digress.
Spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and crypto baskets (like Grayscale’s GBTC) are the golden children of this approval fiesta, with a delightful 90% chance of getting the green light. Why? Because the SEC is apparently cool with treating LTC and SOL like commodities—those sweet, regulated commodities that everyone wants to put in their futures markets. They’ve even gotten their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, which sounds very official. But don’t get too excited yet—the final decisions are still floating out there in the distant future, somewhere between July and October 2025. Because why make decisions now when you can put it off indefinitely?
Now, if you’re betting on Ripple (XRP), don’t go celebrating just yet. It’s got an 85% chance of approval, which, let’s face it, is practically a coin toss in the SEC world. The outcome will likely depend on how the regulators choose to categorize XRP. It’s all about how the CFTC decides to treat it, which, by the way, just declared XRP a “regulated asset for futures markets” on April 21. A round of applause for them. Maybe. Or not.
Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) are also riding the approval train with an 80% chance. Everyone’s favorite meme coin is inching closer to legitimacy, while Hedera’s chance is just close enough to “good enough” for the SEC to say, “Fine, we’ll let you in.”
As for Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT), they’re trailing a bit behind with a respectable 75% chance of getting approved. Don’t worry though, guys. With a bit of luck and a lot of SEC procrastination, who knows what will happen?
“Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening,” Balchunas boldly tweeted on X, as though he’s already prepared for the inevitable delays.
But wait, it gets better. Despite these optimistic predictions, the SEC is still indulging in their favorite hobby: issuing delays. On April 29, they managed to delay decisions on several ETFs. Franklin Templeton’s Solana ETF now faces an October 7 deadline, while their XRP ETF has been pushed to November 5. Grayscale’s Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF are both now facing the delightful final ruling date of October 8. And then there’s Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF, which is still hanging in the balance, thanks to the SEC deferring a decision on its staking provisions. So much for that.
And don’t think the SEC isn’t enjoying all this. On April 24, they delayed decisions on Bitwise’s Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF. New deadline? June 10 and June 11. Because nothing says “efficiency” like a deadline that moves slower than a herd of sloths.
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2025-04-30 15:24