The Pitfall of Digging for Deep Sea Riches: A Skeptic’s View

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Most mining companies start with a humble hole in the ground-or, if they’re feeling fancy, a legally approved plot of dirt to tear up. But The Metals Company (TMC), now, they’ve decided to be a little more daring. They fancy a hole four to six kilometers down, smack in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Yes, you heard that right. Below the waves, where even the fish have second thoughts about venturing.

Specifically, TMC is setting its sights on the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ), a stretch of seabed nestled between Hawaii and Mexico, that’s teeming with potato-sized rocks (or “nodules” as the smart people call them). These lumps are packed with precious metals-nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese-like an underwater treasure chest waiting to be dug up. The kind of treasure chest that *only* the most daring (and perhaps slightly reckless) adventurer would attempt to open.

Now, no other deep-sea mining company has the permission to dive into this seabed bonanza yet. But TMC, the self-proclaimed “best-positioned” company, has been rubbing its hands together in gleeful anticipation, convinced that it’s going to strike it rich. It’s no wonder their stock has soared nearly 500% this year, making the poor investor who just took the plunge feel as if they might just be in the right place at the right time. Or perhaps not…

But is this a glittering diamond or just a glorified rock that looks better from a distance? Well, let’s take a closer look and see where this deep-sea disaster might go.

A Tale of Two Winds

Ah, TMC finds itself in a rather peculiar, squishy spot. On one side, there’s the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a shadowy UN-backed organization with the power to grant-or deny-the green light to mine the deep seas. Yet TMC, after waiting for what feels like a century, still hasn’t received that magical permission slip. The ISA has been bickering amongst itself, wringing its hands over the environmental consequences of deep-sea mining, and generally dragging its feet through a swamp of paperwork.

On the other side, there’s the U.S. government-never one to miss a chance to look “special.” You see, the U.S. didn’t quite agree to play by the ISA’s rules. Instead, they’ve decided they can just go ahead and set up their own deep-sea mining system, because why not? In a particularly dramatic turn of events, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April 2025, making it easier for seabed mining companies to get cracking. The hope is that this shiny new initiative will push companies like TMC into overdrive, even if the rest of the world is still debating the finer points of ocean-floor plundering.

Now, TMC, though based in Canada, has a clever little loophole: a U.S.-based subsidiary. And so, with that in hand, they’ve put in for a mining permit under the rules of the U.S. of A. In August 2025, the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) threw its full weight behind the company, saying that TMC’s application was just peachy. The next phase is a certification process, which could last… oh, about 100 days. But who’s counting, right?

The Trillion-Dollar Question

But here’s where the story takes a grim turn-because nothing is ever simple in this wretched business. TMC’s stock price has shot up faster than a rocket in a cartoon, largely because investors think the company’s next move will be a goldmine. However, dear reader, before you get swept up in the giddy excitement, let me remind you of one thing: no real money is likely to come in until late 2027. That’s two years of nothing. Zilch. A lovely period of waiting, burning through cash like a teenager at a shopping mall.

Let’s talk numbers, shall we? By June 2025, TMC had around $116 million. But they’re bleeding money, with a reported loss of $22 million. For the last 12 months, their cash burn rate has been about $10 million every quarter. That’s no small sum, and it’s not hard to imagine that in order to keep their deep-sea fantasies afloat, they’ll need to dive into someone else’s wallet for a big old cash injection.

And if that wasn’t enough to make your stomach churn, consider this: building an operation for underwater mining isn’t a simple task. No, it’s going to cost a pretty penny on fancy machinery and technology that can handle deep-sea pressures like an Iron Man suit, but with a far more ominous name. TMC will need money. And they’ll need it fast.

Yet, there’s a glimmer of hope (or is it fool’s gold?). The CCZ is potentially worth a staggering $20 trillion, according to some researchers who’ve probably seen one too many sci-fi films. TMC doesn’t control the entire zone, but their slice of the pie might be worth $24 billion. So, with their market cap sitting at a measly $3 billion, the upside potential looks juicy. But I’d be careful about licking my lips too soon. This is no sure thing.

Keep a Close Eye on Battery Technology and Commodities

And now, let us talk about the *real* heart of the matter: the very metals that TMC is hoping to mine. These nodules aren’t bought or sold in a store. Their value is built on a fragile assumption about future demand for metals like cobalt, nickel, and copper. And let’s be honest: assumptions can be fickle, easily shattered like a china cup on a rainy day.

Take, for instance, the chemistry of an electric vehicle (EV) battery. What happens if one day, cobalt and nickel aren’t needed anymore? What if someone clever invents a new material to replace copper? TMC’s fortune could suddenly go from shimmering to dimmer than a lightbulb left on for too long.

But wait! What if things go the other way? What if AI, in its infinite, ever-expanding brilliance, drives demand for copper through the roof? Or if cobalt and nickel become the most precious metals on Earth? In that case, TMC might find itself sitting pretty.

And that, my friends, is the very essence of the matter. The possibilities are so vast, so uncertain, that calling this stock a “sure thing” is like saying you’ll definitely win a race when you’re tied up and blindfolded. It’s a gamble, and for the faint of heart, it might be wiser to just stick to something a bit more predictable-like a metals exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In the end, it’s all about the dance between greed and reality. And in TMC’s case, I can’t help but feel the music’s starting to falter. 🧐

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2025-10-11 10:39