The Nasdaq’s Dance: A Bull’s Tale

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Now, the Nasdaq Composite – that’s a fancy name for a collection of some 3,300 stocks, mostly run by fellas dealin’ in what they call “technology.” A right lively bunch, they are, always chasin’ the newest shiny object. It’s a market, you see, built on hope and a good deal of speculation – a combination that’s been known to make a man rich quick, or leave him lookin’ for his hat in a snowstorm.

This here index, it’s been on a tear lately. Up 43% in ’23, another 28% in ’24, and a further 20% last year. Seems like it can’t be stopped. And the wise old timers around Wall Street, they’re whisperin’ that this bull market – the seventh since 1990, mind you – has legs. Might just keep dancin’ through 2026, they say. Now, I’ve seen enough cycles to know that “always” and “never” are words best left to fools, but the numbers do tell a story, and it’s a curious one at that.

Let me lay it out for you, plain and simple. History, it has a habit of repeat’n itself, though often with a twist. Back in December of ’24, the Nasdaq peaked, then took a tumble when President Trump started talkin’ about tariffs. A bit of a scare, that was. But come April of ’25, it hit a low point, and that, my friends, was the beginnin’ of somethin’ new. A bull market, born outta a bit of a dust-up. It’s like a stubborn mule – you gotta give it a good kick to get it movin’, but once it does, hold on tight!

Now, a bull market, officially, starts when a bear market’s belly is full of nothin’ but regret. But you don’t really know it’s a bull market ’til it’s lookin’ back at you from a new high, and has put on at least 20% since its low. It’s a bit like waitin’ for a train – you think it’s comin’, but you don’t know it’s comin’ ’til you hear the whistle blow.

And blow it has. Since last April, the Nasdaq’s added a good 54% to its value. The chart below shows you the history of these dances, the ups and downs, the times when folks got rich and the times when they wished they hadn’t. Take a look, and you’ll see what I mean.

Bull Market Start Date Return Duration (Days)
Oct. 16, 1990 519% 2,834
Oct. 8, 1998 256% 516
Oct. 9, 2002 628% 5,805
Dec. 24, 2018 52% 422
March 23, 2020 134% 606
Dec. 28, 2022 98% 719
Average 281% 1,817

As you can see, the Nasdaq’s averaged a hefty 281% gain durin’ these bull runs, takin’ about five years to do it. That’s a compoundin’ rate of 31% a year – enough to make a fella’s head spin! Now, it ain’t always been smooth sailin’, mind you. The first year of a bull market usually sees a 71% jump, and the second year, another 17%. If things keep goin’ as they have, the Nasdaq could be lookin’ at 26,108 by April of ’26 – that’s about 11% higher than where it is now. And by ’27, it might just reach 30,546 – a full 30% jump.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. A wise man doesn’t bet the farm on a hunch. But with businesses pourin’ money into artificial intelligence, and the tech sector showin’ no signs of slowin’ down, it’s a good bet this bull market could have some legs. Though, I’ve seen enough “sure things” turn to dust to know you should always keep one foot on solid ground.

Investors can get exposure to the Nasdaq with two index funds

Now, if you’re lookin’ to get a piece of this action, there’s two funds you might consider. First, the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ETF (ONEQ) – it basically tracks the whole index. It’s returned 1,120% over the last two decades, and it’ll cost you about $21 a year for every $10,000 you invest.

Then there’s the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) – it tracks the Nasdaq-100, which is the top 100 non-financial companies on the Nasdaq. It’s returned 1,580% over the last two decades, and it’ll cost you just $18 a year for every $10,000. Some folks might think the QQQ is more concentrated since it only tracks 100 companies, but that ain’t necessarily so. The Nasdaq Composite is weighted by market value, while the Nasdaq-100 has a few tweaks to keep things a bit more balanced.

Here’s how it breaks down:

Stock Nasdaq Composite Weight Nasdaq-100 Weight
1. Nvidia 11.5% 9%
2. Apple 10.2% 8%
3. Microsoft 9.1% 7.1%
4. Alphabet 8.9% 7%
5. Amazon 6.3% 4.9%
Top 5 Holdings 46% 36%

As you can see, the top five stocks account for 46% of the Nasdaq Composite, but only 36% of the Nasdaq-100. So, if you ask me, the Invesco QQQ ETF is the better bet – it’s less concentrated, it’s outperformed over the last two decades, and it’s a bit cheaper. But, like I always say, do your own lookin’ and make your own decisions. A man’s money is his own, and he ought to treat it with respect.

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2026-01-18 11:33