The Market’s Whisper and the Coming Season

by

Bull Market

The land has been fallow for a spell. The S&P 500, that broad measure of hope and hardship, has dipped its head four times in a row, leaving it shy of its high water mark by a margin that feels heavier than it looks. Most fields are bearing little fruit, save for the energy men, and even their bounty feels… temporary. The trouble isn’t evenly spread, mind you. Some rows are withered almost to nothing.

  • The men who chase the new technologies, the silicon dreamers, are twelve percent off their peak, worried the well of investment might run dry before the dream takes root.
  • Those who cater to wants, not needs—the discretionary men—are similarly burdened, haunted by tariffs and the rising price of black gold, a shadow whispering of harder times.
  • The financial men, those who lend and borrow on promise, are showing a strain. The cracks in the private credit fields are widening, and the debts of others weigh heavy on their balance sheets.
  • The material men, those who pull wealth from the earth, are caught between a rising tide of fuel costs and a dwindling return on the metals they mine.
  • And the communicators, the men of words and images, are feeling the chill of uncertainty; when pockets are tight, stories are the first luxury cast aside.

All this adds up to a restlessness in the air, a tremor in the ground. The CBOE Volatility Index – they call it the ‘fear gauge,’ a crude instrument, but one that sometimes catches the wind – closed at 29.5 not long ago. It hasn’t breathed that high since the tariffs were laid down like a gauntlet. But there’s a pattern to these things, a rhythm to the seasons.

What the Wind Tells Us: A Season for Growth

The Volatility Index, that nervous twitch in the market’s eye, measures the expected sway of the S&P 500. A higher reading means a wider dance, a more unpredictable path. When it climbs, it’s because folks are paying a premium for the right to protect themselves from a tumble. A reading of 29 suggests the market expects to move up or down by that much in the coming year.

That index touched 29.5, marking the 265th time it’s climbed that high in the last fifteen years. And each time, it’s been a signal. In those past seasons, the S&P 500 has grown, on average, by 24 percent after such a reading. It’s not a promise, of course. The land is fickle. But it’s a tendency worth noting.

When the index stood at 29.5, the S&P 500 closed at 6,740. A gain of 24 percent from that point would lift it to 8,358 by this time next year. That’s a potential bounty, a 27 percent increase from where it stands now, at 6,582.

The Chorus of Expectations

Wall Street, those who watch the fields from a distance, expects a similar harvest. Their consensus, built from the hopes of many, suggests the S&P 500 will reach 8,338 by this time next year, according to the reckonings of FactSet Research. Another 27 percent. But that expectation is built on the promise of growth, on companies reporting earnings that climb by 16.3 percent in the year to come. A tall order, and one that could falter if the winds shift.

There are shadows on the horizon. Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, warns that trouble in the Middle East could bring a chill to the land, pushing up the price of fuel and potentially tipping the economy into hardship. If the price of black gold remains high for too long, a recession could be difficult to avoid. And in such times, the market tends to fall.

The truth is this: folks tend to overreact to bad news, to see storms where there are only squalls. The market often does well after periods of unrest. But the past is no guarantee of the future. Rising fuel costs could slow the growth of companies, and the bounty implied by the Volatility Index might not materialize.

Whatever comes, the best course remains the same: to invest in good land, in strong crops, and to hold fast, come what may. It’s a simple truth, but one often forgotten in the rush and tumble of the market.

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2026-03-24 10:53