The Fall of Nebius: When the AI Dream Turns Into a Nightmare

It’s easy to get drunk on the heady scent of success. Nebius Group (NBIS) has been soaring high like a bird in a tailwind, and the market has been buying into it-hook, line, and sinker. They’ve got their hands in the cookie jar of AI infrastructure, and the numbers were looking good. Hell, their stock quadrupled this year, which would make any investor believe they had found a ticket to the moon.

But the game’s never that simple. The market is a cruel mistress, and the promises of tomorrow rarely survive the morning light. Today, the air around Nebius smells sour. The stock’s taken a dive, down by 7.8%, as if the whole damn thing was built on smoke and mirrors. The headlines are out, guns blazing, warning of an AI bubble ready to pop. And Nebius is caught square in its crosshairs. The dream’s unraveling, and investors are starting to hear the ominous whispers of doubt.

Is Nebius just another pawn in the AI bubble?

Let’s look at the picture. In early September, Nebius struck a deal with Microsoft-a big one. That should’ve been a shot of whiskey to the stock price, and sure enough, it doubled. Deals like these make you feel like you’re walking on air. Their annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) got a boost, and they started talking big, with expectations of future growth that would make anyone think Nebius was about to change the game. If all the deals come through, maybe they will. But right now, they’re just a story. The kind you tell at the bar after a few drinks to make yourself feel better. The numbers? They’re up, but profits? Not a whisper.

And the market, always hungry for the next big thing, has caught on. You can feel the tension in the air, as articles flood in-Forbes calls it the “AI bubble may burst.” CNBC’s asking if it’s time to start worrying, and USA Today is on the same page, asking if it’s time to hoard cash. It’s like a bad movie that everyone’s already seen before, but they still buy the tickets anyway.

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Now, let’s talk numbers. Nebius is still sitting pretty with a market cap north of $28 billion, even after the fall. But that’s the thing about big numbers-they don’t last forever. The company’s expecting an ARR of about $1 billion for the year, which sounds good on paper. But here’s the kicker: that price-to-sales (P/S) ratio? It’s sitting at 28. That’s unsustainable, like trying to keep a car running on fumes. If the revenue doesn’t keep growing at this pace next year, Nebius is in for another rough ride. Right now, it looks like the stock’s pulling back to reality. Maybe it’s not the crash people were hoping for, but it’s a slowdown that smells like trouble.

So, what does it all mean? Nebius was a good bet if you liked the idea of AI turning into gold. But you can’t live off dreams forever, and sooner or later, the market always makes you pay for them. The bubble’s starting to leak, and for those still holding onto their shares, it’s only a matter of time before the rest of it pops. 🧐

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2025-10-17 23:27