The Dust Settles on PayPal

The stock of PayPal, once a beacon in the new digital territories, has been weathering a slow, persistent decline. Forty percent gone from its high water mark, a loss that feels less like a correction and more like the land giving way beneath a small farm. It’s a harsh reckoning for a company that promised to reshape how money moved, and a hard lesson for those who believed. The numbers tell a story, of course, of cooling sales and headwinds, but they don’t tell the whole of it. They don’t speak of the hopes invested, the small businesses that relied on its ease, and the quiet anxiety of those who saw it as a sure thing.

What Became of the Promise?

Back in twenty-one, there was talk of seven hundred and fifty million accounts by twenty-five. A grand ambition, laid out like a surveyor’s map across the future. It didn’t come to pass. The numbers stalled, climbed slowly, then flattened. Four hundred and twenty-six million in twenty-one, creeping to four hundred and thirty-nine by the end of twenty-five. A farmer doesn’t measure success in inches when he needs feet. It’s a small difference, perhaps, but in the vast fields of commerce, small differences can mean the difference between harvest and hardship.

They speak of inflationary pressures, of consumers tightening their belts. And there’s truth in that, a universal story of lean times. But there was competition too, a new breed of digital merchants vying for the same ground. And the severing of ties with eBay, a long, drawn-out parting after years of partnership, left a wound that festered. It’s a reminder that even in the digital world, relationships matter, and that a broken connection can leave both sides diminished.

Revenue has grown, yes, but at a pace that feels… hesitant. Low-to-mid single digits. Enough to keep the lights on, but not enough to build for the future. They’ve struggled to attract new customers, to coax more volume from existing ones, and to hold onto a fair share of each transaction. It’s like trying to fill a leaky bucket – a lot of effort for a diminishing return.

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025
Active Accounts Growth (YOY)	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%
TPV Growth (YOY)	7%	3%	6%	8%	9%
Payment Transactions Growth (YOY)	(3%)	(7%)	(5%)	(5%)	2%
Transaction Take Rate	1.73%	1.68%	1.68%	1.64%	1.65%
Revenue Growth (YOY)	4%	1%	5%	7%	4%

The volume of transactions has shifted, leaning more heavily on branded checkout, peer-to-peer payments through Venmo, debit cards, and those “buy now, pay later” schemes. It’s a different kind of flow, higher average payments but fewer of them. It’s like trading a wide, shallow river for a narrow, deep canal – less accessible, less life-giving.

They’ve been streamlining, cutting back on the higher-volume, lower-margin platforms like Braintree, trying to stabilize things, to protect what they have. And they’re buying back shares, a way to prop up the price, to give the appearance of strength. It’s a familiar dance, a company trying to hold onto its footing as the ground shifts beneath it.

A Question of Value

Looking ahead to twenty-six, they’re forecasting a decline in earnings per share. The branded checkout platform, the heart of their operation, is struggling to gain traction in a crowded market. They’re rolling out new features, both online and offline, trying to differentiate themselves, but it comes at a cost. More expenses, more risk, and no guarantee of success. It’s a gamble, a desperate attempt to widen the moat before the tide comes in.

The stock looks cheap, undeniably. Eight times this year’s earnings. It might attract the attention of a larger bank or tech company, a potential takeover target. But I wouldn’t rush in, not yet. Not unless we see a few green shoots, a sign that the land is starting to heal. Sometimes, the wisest thing to do is to wait, to let the dust settle, and to see what remains.

2026-02-24 23:46

What Became of the Promise?

A Question of Value

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