The Dip and the Diver: A Tale of TFI’s Fall and a Counsel’s Gambit

Many years later, as the stock market’s feverish whispers echoed through the marble halls of Wall Street, the name TFI International would be remembered not for its triumphs but for the quiet, calculated act of a hedge fund that bought the dip with the precision of a man who had long since abandoned hope in the stars. On Nov. 13, 2025, Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc. did not merely add shares-it planted a flag in the ruins of a once-proud empire, its ink still wet with the blood of a quarter’s filings.

What happened

It was as if the universe had conspired to make the numbers dance. Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel, that paragon of fiscal audacity, had acquired 93,705 shares of TFI International Inc. (TFII +1.09%), a sum that shimmered like gold in the dim light of the SEC’s filing room. The transaction, estimated at $7 million, was less a purchase and more a ritual-a rite of passage for those who believe that the market’s darkest hours are merely the prelude to a grander, more inscrutable melody.

Their holdings now swelled to 912,039 shares, a portfolio as heavy as a leaden heart, valued at $80.72 million as of Sept. 30, 2025. It was not merely a stake; it was a vow, etched in the brittle pages of quarterly reports, that TFI’s fortunes would rise again, or at least that someone would dare to bet on it.

What else to know

Their gamble had grown to 2.87% of their assets under management, a fraction as insignificant as the dust motes swirling in a sunbeam. Yet in the pantheon of investments, it was a titan. The top holdings, those gilded idols of diversification, stood as monuments to the fund’s prudence: iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF, Microsoft, Alphabet, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Royal Bank of Canada-all gleaming like constellations in the dark. But TFI, with its 35% plunge and 36% discount to its 52-week peak, was the shadow that clung to their heels, a reminder that even the most seasoned investors could not escape the pull of the abyss.

TFI’s stock, priced at $99.17 as of Dec. 10, 2025, was a ghost of its former self, a specter that had outpaced the S&P 500 by nearly half a century’s worth of losses. Its revenue, $8.06 billion, and net income, $323.46 million, were numbers that whispered of survival, not glory. The dividend yield, a mere 1.81%, was a paltry offering in a world that demanded more from its kings.

Company Overview

Metric	Value
Revenue (TTM)	$8.06 billion
Net Income (TTM)	$323.46 million
Dividend Yield	1.81%
Price (as of market close 2025-12-10)	$99.17

Company Snapshot

TFI International, that enigmatic colossus of transportation and logistics, was a creature of contradictions. It carried the weight of package and courier, the sinew of less-than-truckload and truckload, and the shadow of logistics across North America. Its business model, a tapestry of asset-based and asset-light segments, was a testament to the modern age’s obsession with flexibility-a dance between ownership and outsourcing, where the fleet of trucks and the network of independent contractors were both its lifeblood and its chains.

It served the small and the mighty, the humble and the grand, yet its true nature remained as elusive as the fog that clings to the edges of a forgotten town. Its integrated approach, its cross-border ambitions, were the stuff of legends-yet the market, ever fickle, had turned its back on the tale.

And so, the company’s story was one of resilience and ruin, of a network that stretched across borders but could not escape the gravitational pull of its own decline.

Foolish take

Dixon Mitchell, that archivist of financial folly, had held TFI since 2020, a decade of patience that bordered on the masochistic. Yet in late 2024, as the stock plummeted nearly 50% from its peak, they had doubled down with the fervor of a man who believes in miracles. To them, TFI was not a stock but a parable-a lesson in buying the dip, in trusting that the market’s pendulum would swing back, even if the swing was accompanied by the sound of breaking glass.

Their reasoning, as labyrinthine as the roads TFI navigated, was that TFI’s valuation-26 times earnings, 12 times free cash flow-was a mirage, a trick of the light that masked its true worth. Yet in the realm of cyclical industries, where the sun rises and sets on the whims of demand, such logic was as fragile as a spider’s web in a storm.

With an average ROIC of 14% over five years, TFI had proven itself a master of acquisition, a serial predator that devoured smaller firms and wove them into its tapestry. Since 2003, it had been a 39-bagger-a tale of growth so relentless it bordered on the supernatural. And yet, here it was, a shadow of its former self, its stock price a relic of a bygone era.

Perhaps, in the eyes of Dixon Mitchell, the company was not a failure but a phoenix, waiting for the right moment to rise from the ashes. Or perhaps it was merely another cautionary tale, a reminder that even the most brilliant minds can be ensnared by the siren song of a discounted stock.

Glossary

13F reportable assets: The ghostly records of institutional investors, haunting the SEC’s archives with their secrets.
Assets under management (AUM): The illusion of control, a number that swells with the promise of prosperity.
Dividend yield: A fleeting breath of income, as ephemeral as the morning mist.
Trailing-twelve-month (TTM): A time capsule, sealing the past in the present.
Asset-based: The old world of ownership, where steel and concrete spoke louder than words.
Asset-light: A modernist’s dream, where the weight of the world is carried by others.
Less-than-truckload (LTL): The art of sharing, of combining journeys to reach a common destination.
Truckload (TL): The solitary path, where one’s cargo is the sole burden.
Brokerage services: The unseen hands that connect the world, yet own nothing.
Quarterly trading activity: A ritual of renewal, where the market’s heartbeat is measured in three-month intervals.
Stake: A claim on the future, written in the ink of today’s decisions.
Independent contractors: The nomads of the modern economy, bound by contracts and unbound by loyalty.

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2025-12-10 22:37