The Currents of Progress: Two Ventures in the Realm of Artificial Intelligence

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It is a truth universally acknowledged that a generation must, in time, be captivated by a new and potent force. In our own era, this force manifests as Artificial Intelligence – a creation poised, perhaps, to rival the very printing press in its capacity to reshape the world. The speed with which it has entered the common consciousness is…remarkable. One recalls the introduction of the telegraph, a marvel then, yet its adoption unfolded over decades. This new intelligence, however, has spread with the swiftness of rumor, finding purchase in the habits of men and women within a mere handful of years. That over half of Americans now engage with its offerings weekly is a testament not to its inherent worth, but to the restless human desire for novelty, and perhaps, a certain impatience with the burdens of thought.

JPMorgan Chase, a house well-versed in the ebb and flow of capital, observes that the internet required sixteen years to achieve a comparable level of penetration. Such haste invites scrutiny. Is this genuine progress, or merely a fevered dream of efficiency, a relentless pursuit of convenience that will ultimately diminish our capacity for independent judgment? These are questions for philosophers, perhaps, but a market analyst cannot afford to ignore the underlying currents of human desire, for it is upon these currents that fortunes are made and lost.

AppLovin: A Merchant of Attention

AppLovin, a name perhaps unfamiliar to many, is a curious entity. It is a maker of tools, not for the hands, but for the eyes. It fashions mechanisms by which advertisements are delivered to the mobile screens of countless individuals, a subtle yet pervasive influence on the desires and habits of modern life. The company, once focused solely on the realm of mobile games, now extends its reach into the broader landscape of e-commerce, seeking to connect merchants with potential customers. The ambition is not ignoble, yet one wonders at the moral implications of such an enterprise. Is it a service, or a manipulation?

At the heart of AppLovin’s strategy lies a system called Axon, an “engine” that, in the language of its proponents, “matches advertiser demand with publisher supply.” In simpler terms, it is a means of ensuring that the right advertisement reaches the right person at the right moment. The brilliance, if one can call it that, lies in the feedback loop. AppLovin also controls a platform called Max, which allows publishers to sell advertising space across multiple networks. This provides a wealth of data – information about which advertisements resonate with which audiences. The company then uses this data to refine its targeting engine, improving its ability to drive desired outcomes – purchases, downloads, and the subtle shaping of consumer behavior. Morgan Stanley, a house not easily impressed, has deemed Axon a “best-in-class machine learning ad engine.” The numbers, too, are compelling: AppLovin delivers a return on ad spend 45% higher than Meta Platforms, and a staggering 115% higher than the offerings of Alphabet’s YouTube and the fleeting trends of TikTok, according to the observations of Northbeam. Such figures are, of course, subject to interpretation. They speak to efficiency, certainly, but not necessarily to value.

The expectation among those who track such matters is that AppLovin’s earnings will grow at a rate of 48% annually over the next three years. This, combined with a current valuation of 51 times earnings, suggests a certain degree of optimism. The company has, in recent quarters, consistently exceeded expectations, a fact that has not escaped the notice of Wall Street. The median target price among 32 analysts is $771 per share, implying an 89% upside from its current level of $407. Yet, one must always remember that markets are driven by sentiment as much as by logic. The pursuit of profit can often blind men to the larger consequences of their actions.

Robinhood: A Broker for a New Generation

Robinhood, a name redolent of legend, is a broker designed for a different sort of investor – younger, more technologically savvy, and perhaps, less inclined to heed the warnings of seasoned professionals. The company earns its revenue through a variety of means – payment for order flow, commission fees on options contracts and cryptocurrency trades, margin lending, and subscription fees for its Gold membership service. It is, in essence, a facilitator of transactions, a middleman between those who possess capital and those who seek to acquire it. The simplicity of its interface is undeniably appealing, but one wonders whether it also encourages a degree of recklessness, a tendency to speculate without fully understanding the risks involved.

Robinhood is gaining market share in several key areas – equities, options, cryptocurrency, margin, and predictions – and is well-positioned to capitalize on the demographic trends of the coming decades. With roughly twice as many millennial and Gen Z customers as its closest competitor, the company is poised to benefit as this generation comes of age and accumulates wealth. The launch of an AI investment tool called Cortex for Gold subscribers is a further indication of its ambition. Cortex sources data from breaking news, research reports, and analyst ratings to help users understand stock price action. Users can even instruct Cortex in plain English to make trades and conduct market research. Vlad Tenev, the company’s CEO, proclaims that Robinhood aims to provide its users with “a world-class financial team in your pocket.” A noble ambition, perhaps, but one cannot help but wonder whether it will ultimately empower individuals to make informed decisions, or simply lull them into a false sense of security.

Wall Street expects Robinhood’s earnings to grow at a rate of 20% annually over the next three years. This, combined with a current valuation of 34 times earnings, suggests a reasonable degree of confidence. The company has consistently exceeded expectations in recent quarters, a fact that has not escaped the notice of analysts. The median target price among 28 analysts is $152 per share, implying an 81% upside from its current level of $84. Yet, one must always remember that the future is uncertain, and even the most carefully crafted projections can be overturned by unforeseen events. The currents of progress are powerful, but they are also unpredictable.

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2026-02-09 12:23