The Curious Case of Oklo: 500% Gains and Why It Still Might Be Too Early to Celebrate

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Ah, the curious spectacle of the modern financial world: a nuclear start-up skyrocketing 500% in value and yet still being largely ignored in favor of the latest buzz in the world of artificial intelligence. This is a bit like discovering a hidden, glittering gem on the sidewalk while everyone else is gushing about the glitter in the latest iPhone’s ads. And yet, here we are, scratching our heads over Oklo (OKLO), the start-up that has somehow managed to elbow its way into the billion-dollar club.

It’s a remarkable rise-Oklo’s stock has surged from virtually nowhere to a market valuation of $19 billion in less than a year. It’s even managed to outpace not just its direct competitors like NuScale (SMR), but the Wall Street darlings Nvidia and Palantir. Not bad for a company that doesn’t even have a functioning nuclear reactor, let alone a revenue stream. At the moment, Oklo isn’t selling chips or software. It’s not selling anything at all. But it does have an idea, and-this is important-money to burn.

What does Oklo have, exactly? A plan to build tiny nuclear reactors that can run on specialized fuel for a decade or more. These little powerhouses could theoretically supply the energy-hungry tech giants with the kind of clean, reliable energy they’ll need as they continue to demand ever more power. That’s the promise, anyway. But whether it’s worth the lofty price tag will depend largely on your level of faith in Oklo’s timeline and execution.

What Oklo is designing, and why it matters

In layman’s terms, Oklo is working on an advanced nuclear reactor called Aurora. It’s a small modular reactor (SMR), a slick new way to generate power in more compact, manageable doses. Aurora’s expected output is 75 megawatts of power, which doesn’t sound like much unless you realize how much the world is about to need. These reactors are designed to run on a special kind of uranium fuel-high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)-which allows them to operate for a decade without refueling. Compare that to the typical reactor that shuts down every couple of years to swap out fuel. A small but mighty shift in how we do nuclear energy.

Why the world might need these little reactors

Global data centers, those sprawling, humming behemoths of silicon and steel, are expected to demand about 84 gigawatts of power by 2027. That’s a lot of juice. Goldman Sachs estimates that the global data center market alone currently consumes 55 gigawatts, and that number is only going to climb. So, yes, Oklo’s 75 megawatts per reactor seems downright modest in the grand scheme of things. But here’s the twist-these reactors are small, modular, and can be placed close to the data centers themselves. They could be strung together to form a larger network, delivering power 24/7. Picture it: a little reactor farm next to the data center that doesn’t need to stop for refueling. And if they get their act together, Oklo might just have the perfect product for a growing industry.

And there’s more. Oklo plans to recycle nuclear fuel. The company’s vision includes building a $1.68 billion Advanced Fuel Center in Tennessee, which will be the first privately funded U.S. facility designed to turn nuclear waste into fresh metallic fuel. If this works-and there’s a big “if” here-it could drastically reduce operating costs and secure a seemingly endless supply of fuel. That’s like finding an entire oil field in your backyard. But, again, it’s an idea in the works, and we’re all waiting for it to pan out.

The numbers don’t quite add up…yet

Now, don’t get too excited. Sure, all of this sounds *wonderful*-a clean, renewable source of energy! A new way to power the tech giants! But here’s the catch: Oklo’s reactors are still mostly theoretical. They haven’t received regulatory approval yet. The company applied to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for approval to operate its Aurora reactor in 2022, but their application was rejected due to missing information. In July 2025, they completed a “pre-application readiness assessment” (whatever that means), but they’re still very much in the early phases. The company has yet to prove it can deliver on any of its promises at scale.

To make matters more pressing, Oklo isn’t making any money right now. In fact, it’s burning through cash at a rapid clip, with an expected cash burn of between $65 million and $80 million for 2025 alone. Not exactly a recipe for sustainable growth-at least, not yet.

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The political winds in Oklo’s favor

However, Oklo isn’t stranded on a desert island. The White House has given a nod of approval to advanced nuclear reactors, which means Oklo could very well benefit from some favorable political winds. A 2019 executive order from President Donald Trump, followed by a joint U.S.-U.K. initiative to speed up the safety checks for microreactors, has helped place Oklo on the map. Plus, the company’s Aurora reactor has been selected by the Department of Energy to participate in a Reactor Pilot Program. That’s right-Oklo’s design was one of only three chosen for the program, with the potential to get its first reactor up and running by late 2027. A step forward, albeit a small one.

In fact, as of September 2025, Oklo has even broken ground on the construction of its first Aurora reactor in Idaho. Yes, it’s happening. Something material, if still very much in its infancy.

So, is Oklo a buy?

Let’s put it simply: Oklo is *expensive*. It’s trading at 28 times book value, which is not cheap by any standard. For comparison, its rival NuScale is trading at a much more reasonable 9 times book value. This means that Oklo is priced for perfection, with a lot of optimism already baked into its valuation.

If you’re the type of investor who’s willing to take a long-term, high-risk bet on the future of nuclear energy, Oklo might be a tempting option to nibble on. But for those who like to play it a bit safer, there are better options out there, like a nuclear energy ETF, which could offer exposure to the sector without putting all your eggs in one start-up’s basket.

But, then again, what do I know? I’m just the guy who missed out on Amazon in the early days. But perhaps that’s what makes me the ideal contrarian investor: I’m always looking for a story that hasn’t been told yet. 🌍

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2025-09-26 11:10