The market dances like a man in a tuxedo on fire. April 2025 started shaky, but the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have since spun tales of triumph. They hit records like a jazz band playing in a burning building-lively, loud, and blind to the smoke.
AI hype fuels the flames. Machines learning to outthink humans? A siren song for investors. The Fed’s rate cuts? A back-alley deal to keep the party going. Lower rates mean cheaper loans, more hiring, more mergers. Sounds clean until you realize the ink’s still wet on the contracts.
But the economy’s not a stock chart. It’s a bruise you don’t feel until the swelling hits your ribs. The S&P 500’s smile doesn’t match the grimace on Main Street. The data says something’s off, and Wall Street’s still sipping champagne from a champagne glass.
Key economic indicators are making dubious history
Numbers don’t lie, but they don’t tell the whole story. Take commercial real estate: CMBS delinquencies hit 11.76% in October 2025. That’s not a slump-it’s a landslide. Trepp’s numbers show a tenfold jump since 2023. Even the Great Recession looks like a speed bump now.
BREAKING 🚨: Commercial Real Estate
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.8%, the highest level in history 👀 pic.twitter.com/O3TCPJFEmk
Barchart (@Barchart) November 18, 2025
Back in the 2010s, the Fed kept rates low like a man keeping a flame under a pot of soup. Developers built towers of glass and debt. Then came the ghost of the pandemic-remote work, empty offices, and a 0.3% unemployment uptick. The real estate market isn’t just souring; it’s fermenting in a barrel of rot.
Auto loans? They’re the next can of worms. Fitch’s Auto Loan 60+ Delinquency Index hit 6.65% in October. That’s not a hiccup-it’s a heart attack. Subprime delinquencies topped 5% during the Great Recession. Now we’re flirting with 7%. The $1.66 trillion in outstanding auto debt isn’t a crisis yet, but it’s a grenade with the pin half-pulled.
Americans are falling behind on their car payments at alarming rates:
Subprime auto loan delinquency rates reached 6.43%, the 2nd-highest on record.
The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years.
Delinquency rates are now… pic.twitter.com/upYHNGcm83
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 26, 2025
Credit cards? They’re the quiet assassins. The Fed’s New York branch reports 12.41% of balances in 90+ day delinquency in Q3 2025. That’s not just bad-it’s a death rattle. $1.2 trillion in credit card debt? The consumer’s not broke, just bleeding out. The market’s up, but the people are down. It’s a disconnect as smooth as a lie told by a professional.
Economic cycles aren’t linear-and that’s great news for long-term investors
History’s a lousy guide, but it’s the only map we’ve got. Recessions aren’t disasters; they’re punctuation marks in the story of growth. Since 1945, the average recession’s lasted ten months. Expansions? Five years. That’s not a trend-it’s a truism.
The S&P 500’s bull markets outlast bear markets like a drunkard outlasting a bar fight. Bespoke Investment Group’s data shows bull markets average 1,011 days. Bear markets? 286. Even the longest bear market (630 days) couldn’t outlast 14 of the 27 bull markets. The numbers don’t cheer-they whisper: stick with it.
It’s official. A new bull market is confirmed.
The S&P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days.
Read more at https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn. pic.twitter.com/tnRz1wdonp
Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 8, 2023
Time’s the only thing money can’t buy. Investors who forget that get buried in the rubble. The market’s a pendulum-swinging from euphoria to panic, but always swinging. The trick’s not to predict the swing. It’s to stay in the room when it does.
The economy’s a house of cards. Some lean, some fall, but the deck’s always reshuffled. Wall Street’s shine won’t last forever. When the lights go out, the cracks will be all you see. But then again, so will the gold.
💀
Read More
- Leveraged ETFs: A Dance of Risk and Reward Between TQQQ and SSO
- The Dividend Maze: VYM and HDV in a Labyrinth of Yield and Diversification
- How to Do Sculptor Without a Future in KCD2 – Get 3 Sculptor’s Things
- Gold Rate Forecast
- Ethereum: Will It Go BOOM or Just… Fizzle? 💥
- 🚀 BCH’s Bold Dash: Will It Outshine BTC’s Gloomy Glare? 🌟
- Bitcoin Reclaims $90K, But Wait-Is the Rally Built on Sand?
- The Fairness Trap: How AI Can Game Fair Division
- GLD vs. SLV: Which ETF Wins for Retail Investors?
- Magnite Stock: Insider Sale Sparks Curious Questions?
2025-11-29 17:53