Textron: A Dividend… Situation

by

So, Textron (TXT +2.33%). They had a quarter. A good quarter, supposedly. Earnings beat, sales up… it’s all very… performative, isn’t it? Like they’re trying to impress someone. And then the stock drops? Eight percent? It’s just… rude. It’s like bringing a perfectly good casserole to a potluck and having someone say, “Oh, is that… quinoa?”

They’re touting $1.73 a share, when everyone expected $1.70. Okay, fine. A little over. But then the sales number – $4.2 billion. Analysts were sniffing around $4.1 billion. So, they beat on both. And the market’s response is to punish the stock? What is wrong with people? It’s like they’re actively looking for things to be disappointed about. It’s exhausting.

The problem, naturally, is “guidance.” That’s what they call it. Like it’s some kind of benevolent instruction. No, it’s a warning. A pre-emptive excuse for future mediocrity. They’re saying, “We did well this time, but don’t get any ideas.” And the market just laps it up. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy of underachievement.

Textron Q4: Numbers, Numbers, Numbers

Sixteen percent sales growth year over year. Fine. Adjusted earnings up 29%. Good, I guess. But then they hit you with the GAAP numbers. $1.33 a share. After all that adjusting. It’s like they’re trying to hide something. They’re saying, “Look at these shiny numbers! Don’t worry about how we got here!” And then they try to spin it as a 75% improvement. From what? From a disaster, probably.

Full year earnings – $5.12 GAAP, $6.10 adjusted, on $14.8 billion in sales. It’s a lot of numbers. Too many numbers. They’re throwing numbers at you to distract you from the fact that it’s all just… noise. The aviation business is “gangbusters,” apparently. What does that even mean? And the helicopter division is doing “well.” Well? Is that the best they can do? “Well”? It’s infuriating.

Textron Systems and Industrial… those divisions are “anemic to negative.” Anemic! They’re admitting their divisions are sick! And they’re using medical terminology! It’s just… insensitive. Free cash flow is up 46.6%. Okay, that’s… something. But it doesn’t fix the fact that they’re using words like “anemic.”

Loading widget...

Is This a Dividend Play? Don’t Ask Me.

So, here’s the real kicker. They’re forecasting $6.84 a share for 2026. Wall Street, anyway. Textron? They’re saying, “Maybe $6.60.” $6.60! After all that “gangbusters” growth! It’s like they’re deliberately trying to lower expectations. And then they throw in a GAAP estimate of $5.49, “plus or minus $0.10.” Plus or minus! What does that even mean? Are they admitting they don’t know their own earnings? It’s a joke.

The stock trades at 16 times current-year earnings. Not terrible, I suppose. But the dividend yield is… pathetic. 0.1%? You’re telling me I’m supposed to invest in a company that’s barely going to reward me for my loyalty? It’s insulting. They’re expecting me to be impressed by a 16 P/E ratio when they can’t even offer a decent dividend? It’s just… greedy.

Analysts think earnings will perk up over the next five years. Great. More forecasts. More promises. More disappointment. I’m starting to think a high-yield savings account is a better investment. At least that doesn’t involve a constant barrage of optimistic projections followed by underwhelming results. To me, Textron is a hold. A very, very cautious hold. And frankly, I’m starting to suspect they’re deliberately trying to annoy me.

Read More

2026-02-06 01:54