Tesla’s Robotaxi Dreams & My Portfolio’s Nerves

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Self-Driving Car

You know, I used to think retirement involved birdwatching and a sensible cardigan. Now it feels like day trading and obsessively checking the progress of Tesla’s robotaxi fleet. It’s…a shift. I’ve been following Tesla for years, mostly because a cousin, bless her heart, went all-in on the stock during the early days. She sends me updates—capitalized and punctuated with an alarming number of exclamation points—so I feel obligated to pay attention. And honestly, the electric cars are nice. It’s this robotaxi thing that’s got me slightly twitchy.

The news lately, mostly from Elon Musk himself (a man who communicates with the same frenetic energy as a hummingbird on espresso), suggests things are…progressing. Apparently, there are over 500 of these things ferrying passengers around Austin and San Francisco. He anticipates doubling that number monthly. Monthly! It reminds me of my Aunt Mildred claiming she’d perfected a recipe for perpetual motion fruitcake. It sounds impressive until you consider the sheer logistical improbability.

He’s even claiming fully unsupervised operation in Austin. Fully. Unsupervised. I pictured a fleet of metal boxes careening through the city, making decisions based on algorithms and a vague sense of existential dread. My broker, a man who usually speaks in calming, measured tones, actually sighed when I brought it up. “It’s ambitious,” he said, which in Wall Street speak translates to “prepare for volatility.”

Electrek, a website I’ve started frequenting with the dedication of a medieval monk studying illuminated manuscripts, disputes the “fully unsupervised” claim. They’ve got a “Robotaxi Tracker” – a wonderfully nerdy initiative – and they’re reporting only four unsupervised vehicles out of 58. Four! It’s like saying you’ve conquered Mount Everest after successfully climbing the stairs in your apartment building.

The Ghosts of Robotaxis Past

Musk, of course, has a history of optimistic projections. Remember 2019, when he promised a million robotaxis by 2020? It’s a comforting reminder that even geniuses occasionally miscalculate. It’s also a useful lesson for investors: timelines are suggestions, not guarantees. My cousin, predictably, still insists it was “just a slight delay.” She’s remarkably resilient, that woman.

He recently tweeted, rather casually, that production of the robotaxi and the Optimus robot (another ambitious project) would be “agonizingly slow.” “Agonizingly slow” is not a phrase that inspires confidence, especially when you’re talking about multi-billion dollar investments. It’s like telling a surgeon he’s taking his time during open-heart surgery.

And then there’s the crash rate. Various reports suggest it’s…a concern. Accidents are inevitable, of course. Humans crash cars all the time. But a fleet of autonomous vehicles with a high crash rate feels…different. It’s a PR nightmare waiting to happen, and a potential regulatory disaster. I can already picture the congressional hearings.

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The company is also planning to phase out production of the Model S and X to make room for the Optimus robots. It’s a bold move. It’s also a little unsettling. It feels like they’re betting the farm on a technology that’s still very much in development. I’m starting to suspect my cousin might be right, and I should have bought more stock.

The Price of Progress (and My Anxiety)

Tesla is going all-in on AI, and it’s doubling capital expenditures to make it happen. Wall Street analysts are predicting zero free cash flow in 2026 or 2027. Zero! It’s a precarious position, especially considering the stock is trading at over 200 times forward earnings. The market is clearly pricing in a lot of success, and that’s what worries me.

If the robotaxi business struggles, or if it turns out to be smaller than expected, the stock price could take a hit. A significant hit. I’m cautiously optimistic, mostly because I’m too invested to do anything else. I’ve decided to view it as a long-term gamble, and to avoid looking at the stock price too often. It’s a strategy that’s worked reasonably well for my retirement savings so far.

The whole thing feels…fragile. Like a house of cards built on a foundation of optimism and algorithms. I’m not saying it won’t work. I’m just saying I’m going to need a stronger cup of tea.

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2026-02-10 12:13