Tesla’s Robot Dreams: Worth the Hype?

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For years, Tesla has been the company that made electric cars… rather good ones, actually. But Elon Musk, a man not known for modest ambitions, appears to have decided that building automobiles is… well, a bit pedestrian. He’s now aiming for something far grander: turning Tesla into a robotics and artificial intelligence powerhouse. It’s a bit like a baker deciding to take up astrophysics, isn’t it? Ambitious, certainly. Possibly requiring a few more qualifications.

At the heart of this rather startling transformation is Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. Musk is so convinced of Optimus’ potential that he’s begun to…re-prioritize. The production of the Model S and X, those perfectly respectable vehicles, is being scaled back. The Fremont factory, previously dedicated to building cars, is being repurposed for robot manufacturing. It’s a bold move, akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but with more silicon and fewer lifeboats.

The question, naturally, is whether this is a stroke of genius or a particularly expensive folly. Is now the time to buy Tesla stock, hoping that Optimus will send it soaring, or are we witnessing the prelude to a rather spectacular tumble? Let’s unpack this, shall we?

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What Exactly Can Tesla Optimus Do?

Tesla has been tinkering with Optimus for quite some time now. The current iteration is dubbed “Gen 3,” which sounds suspiciously like a science fiction film title. Apparently, Optimus has mastered the art of fine motor skills. The promotional videos showcase it tearing paper towels, opening cabinets, and folding laundry. Now, I can barely manage the laundry myself, and I’ve had decades of practice. It’s a little unnerving, frankly.

They’ve also demonstrated its dexterity by having it catch objects tossed in its general direction. It’s learned to walk on uneven terrain, which is more than I can say after a particularly enthusiastic hike. It’s all rather impressive, but it’s worth remembering that these are carefully curated demonstrations. The robot isn’t, as far as I know, being asked to navigate a crowded shopping mall or assemble flat-pack furniture.

When Will We Be Sharing Our Lives With Robot Butlers?

Musk’s long-term goal is to produce a million Optimus bots a year at the Fremont factory. A million! That’s a lot of robots. However, he’s tempering expectations, admitting that Optimus is still firmly in the research and development phase. Currently, it’s primarily deployed within Tesla’s own factories, observing and learning. Think of it as a very expensive, slightly unsettling intern.

Musk hints at production commencing “probably the end of this year.” A timeframe that, in Silicon Valley terms, could mean anything from December 31st to sometime in the next geological epoch.

Is Tesla’s Valuation Justified? Or Living in a Robot-Shaped Bubble?

As of today (February 18th), Tesla boasts a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion. That’s…a substantial sum. From a valuation perspective, it trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 202. Using Wall Street’s consensus earnings per share estimate of $4.05 for 2028, Tesla still trades at 103 times its projected earnings. In other words, a lot of optimism is already baked into the price.

It’s easy to argue that the stock is already priced to perfection. But a contrarian might point out that no company has ever successfully deployed physical AI at a global scale. Since there’s nothing to benchmark Optimus against, it’s impossible to predict its true potential. It’s a bit like trying to estimate the value of a unicorn before anyone’s actually seen one.

Optimus represents a highly asymmetric bet. If Tesla succeeds, the stock could soar. But if the product flops or struggles to scale, a significant de-rating is likely. Against this backdrop, I wouldn’t rush to buy Tesla stock solely on the hype surrounding Optimus. It will likely take years, perhaps decades, for Optimus to add trillions of dollars to Tesla’s value. It’s a long game, and patience, as they say, is a virtue.

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2026-02-24 10:13