Tesla & Optimus: A (Slightly Anxious) Market Update

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Right. Tesla. Still a thing. The stock, I mean. It’s been… volatile. Like me after two coffees. But, quietly, it’s actually risen 134% over the last three years. Which, let’s be honest, is better than most of my life choices. It dipped a bit after the latest earnings report, naturally. Investors getting all twitchy about capital spending. Honestly, they’re always twitchy. It’s exhausting. But underneath the jitters, there’s still a belief in the long game, which is… AI. And robots. Specifically, Optimus.

Optimus. The humanoid robot. It’s supposed to start production this year. Which feels… ambitious. But if it does happen, well, that could change things. It might even justify the current valuation, which, let’s admit, is a bit of a stretch. I’ve been trying to rationalise it, listing pros and cons, but mostly I end up comparing it to the price of avocados. It’s all relative, isn’t it?

Optimus: The Dream (and the Production Lines)

Everyone keeps saying autonomous cars and robots will add trillions to the economy. Trillions! It sounds… overwhelming. But Tesla seems to think it can grab a decent chunk of that pie. They’re showing off version 3 of Optimus soon, apparently it moves more like a person. Which is good, because the last one looked like it was auditioning for a horror movie. They’re even repurposing the Model S/X production lines. A bold move. I’ve always admired people who can commit to a decision. I usually just dither.

There are other companies building humanoids, of course. But Tesla has the production capacity and, crucially, the AI training data. All those cars driving around, collecting information… it’s like a giant, rolling brain. It gives Optimus a sort of… street smarts, I suppose. Which is more than I have after a day spent staring at spreadsheets.

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So, Will It Double? (Don’t Ask Me, I’m Just a Worried Analyst)

The thing is, Tesla isn’t just selling cars anymore. It’s selling a service. And that’s where Optimus comes in. A robot that can work 24/7, never needs a coffee break, and only requires occasional maintenance… that’s a valuable asset. They’re planning to monetize it like a subscription service, similar to the robotaxis and full self-driving. Which, frankly, feels a bit… ambitious. But then again, so was my attempt to learn Mandarin.

At full production, Optimus could be incredibly profitable. But it’ll take years before it really impacts the bottom line. The stock market, of course, is always looking ahead. So, as production gets closer, the stock could start to reflect that future earning potential. Like when they announced the robotaxi service last year. It’s all about perception, isn’t it? And hope. Mostly hope.

Lists I’ve made today: 1. Things to research about AI. 2. Reasons why I should probably sell all my possessions and invest in Optimus. 3. Things to avoid while staring at stock charts (chocolate biscuits, existential dread). Patience, they say, is key. I wouldn’t buy Tesla expecting it to double this year. But if they deliver on those 25% annual earnings growth expectations… well, that might just give it the fuel it needs. It’s a long shot, I admit. But then again, so was my attempt to run a marathon.

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2026-02-01 22:12