Tesla and the Pursuit of Future Dividends

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Now, Tesla (TSLA 3.76%). A company that promises not just cars, but a future. A future where vehicles drive themselves, and robots… well, do whatever it is robots do when they aren’t busy pondering the meaning of existence.1 They’re talking Robotaxis and Optimus, the humanoid robot. Sounds impressive, doesn’t it? A good time to buy, you’d think? Especially since the stock’s had a bit of a wobble this year. A mere 9% dip. A trifle, really, for a company aiming to redefine personal transportation and, possibly, the very nature of work. But a dividend hunter, you see, doesn’t chase promises. We hunt for actual payouts. And that, my friends, is where things get… interesting.

The ambition is admirable, truly. Tesla is building castles in the air, magnificent structures of engineering and software. But even the most beautiful castle needs foundations, and a solid treasury. And that, at the moment, is looking a bit like a bog. Vehicle sales have stumbled, profits are heading south, and the company is about to embark on a spending spree that would make Croesus blush.2

Big Ambitions, Bigger Bills

Let’s talk about these ambitions. The Robotaxi, for example. The idea is that your Tesla will become a self-driving taxi when you aren’t using it, earning you money while you sleep. A lovely thought, isn’t it? Like having a tiny, automated workforce working for you. They envision a fleet of these vehicles, seamlessly integrated into a ride-sharing network, a sort of automated livery service for the 21st century. They’re not just selling cars anymore, you see. They’re selling ‘transportation as a service’.3 Which is a polite way of saying they want a slice of your ongoing travel budget, rather than a one-time purchase.

Elon Musk, a man who clearly operates on a different timescale than the rest of us, confidently predicts that fully autonomous vehicles will be roaming a good chunk of the United States by the end of the year. Pending, of course, regulatory approval. Which is always a bit of a wildcard. One imagines armies of lawyers battling over liability when a self-driving taxi mistakes a pedestrian for a particularly slow-moving traffic cone. And the Optimus robot? Well, Musk believes it will ‘move the needle on U.S. GDP significantly’. A bold claim. One wonders if the robots will also be paying taxes.

The Cost of Dreams

All this, naturally, comes at a cost. A substantial cost. Tesla expects capital expenditures to more than double, exceeding $20 billion. That’s a lot of money, even in a world where billionaires are launching themselves into space. And it’s happening at a time when sales are down 9% and profits have taken a 46% tumble. Now, a shrewd investor might see this as a temporary dip, a short-term pain for long-term gain. But a dividend hunter? We see a red flag flapping vigorously in the wind.

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The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that could induce vertigo. Over 368. And a market capitalization exceeding $1.5 trillion. That’s a lot of faith, a lot of expectation baked into the price. It suggests that investors are already anticipating a miraculous rebound in sales and a return to robust profit growth. And a good portion of the Robotaxi’s potential success, I suspect, has already been priced in.

So, are shares trading at a low enough price to make them a buy? At the moment, I don’t think so. The risk, frankly, seems too high. I could be wrong, of course. Tesla might pull off a technological miracle and deliver on all its promises. But given the current valuation, I’d rather put my money into something a little more… grounded. Something that actually pays a dividend. Perhaps a nice, reliable utility company. Or a firm that makes… well, anything that doesn’t involve robots and self-driving cars. Just a thought.

1 The philosophical implications of a robot pondering its own existence are, frankly, terrifying. It’s best not to dwell on it.
2 Croesus, for the uninitiated, was a king famous for his wealth. He also had a rather unfortunate habit of giving bad advice. History doesn’t record whether he invested in Tesla.
3 A term coined by marketing departments to make everything sound more…disruptive.

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2026-02-05 04:32