Tesla: A Most Sporting Investment?

by

It’s a universally acknowledged truth that every investor dreams of stumbling upon a stock that will, as it were, set the old bank account singing. A bit like a fortunate chap finding a sovereign or two whilst rummaging in his waistcoat pocket, only on a considerably grander scale. We’re talking about the sort of windfall that allows one to acquire a particularly comfortable armchair and a lifetime supply of biscuits, naturally. In days gone by, it was gold nuggets in California; now, it’s the hunt for the next tech titan.

Whilst putting all one’s eggs in a single basket is, of course, a frightfully risky proposition – akin to wagering the family silver on a particularly unreliable racehorse – history does suggest that such ventures can, on occasion, bear fruit. A modest ten thousand dollars invested in Nvidia back in 2015, for instance, would have blossomed into a positively staggering $3.7 million. Similar strokes of good fortune were to be had with Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, yielding a handsome $800,000 and $340,000 respectively. Not to be sneezed at, what!

So, the possibility of a life-altering return is, undeniably, present. Let us turn our attention, then, to a fourth contender – the electric vehicle manufacturer, Tesla (TSLA 4.32%). A ten-year investment would have yielded a respectable $300,000. Whilst Nvidia and its chip-making brethren may well continue to perform admirably, one can’t help but suspect that Tesla, with a dash of good fortune and clever engineering, possesses a certain je ne sais quoi that could propel it to even greater heights.

Indeed, it’s my considered opinion that Tesla could outperform even the most optimistic projections. It’s not merely an electric vehicle company, you see. It’s a confluence of technological advancements, a veritable hotbed of innovation, and, dare I say, a rather clever bit of future-proofing. The market, as ever, is a fickle beast, but Tesla seems determined to tame it.

More Than Merely Motoring

Tesla’s ascent to prominence began, naturally, with its electric vehicles. The company managed to establish itself as a powerhouse, reaching a market capitalization of $1.4 trillion, by successfully building a global fleet of EVs and being the first to mass-produce them at a price point accessible to a reasonable number of consumers. In 2025, they delivered a respectable 1.63 million vehicles, the vast majority being the popular Model 3 and Model Y. A rather tidy sum, wouldn’t you agree?

However, the automotive landscape is a competitive one, and Tesla no longer reigns supreme as the global EV leader. The Chinese automaker BYD surpassed them in 2025, with a notable 28% jump in deliveries. Furthermore, the pronouncements of the company’s CEO, whilst undeniably spirited, haven’t exactly been a boon to sales. Certain economists at Yale University have projected a loss of at least one million units from October 2022 to April 2025, owing to his extracurricular activities. A spot of bother, to be sure.

The third quarter appeared solid on the surface, with revenue reaching $28.09 billion, up from $25.18 billion. A company record of 497,099 vehicle deliveries was also achieved. However, this was largely attributable to the impending expiration of a $7,500 tax credit, prompting customers to rush their purchases. The subsequent fourth quarter saw deliveries dip to 418,277, a decline of nearly 16%. A temporary setback, one hopes.

Margins, alas, are also proving to be a bit of a pickle. Tesla’s operating margin in the third quarter stood at a mere 5.8%, compared to 10.8% a year prior. Net income also experienced a decline, falling to $1.62 billion from $2.71 billion. A touch disconcerting, naturally, but not insurmountable.

Fortunately for Tesla, it’s far more than just a purveyor of electric automobiles. Whilst a degree of autonomous driving has always been a feature of Tesla vehicles, the company is investing heavily in its own full self-driving (FSD) software, with the intention of making self-driving cars a common sight on our roads. A rather ambitious undertaking, but one with potentially enormous rewards.

The Tesla Robotaxi app will allow Tesla owners – once the technology receives the necessary approvals – to make their vehicles available as robotaxis, essentially generating a passive income stream. A limited robotaxi service is currently operational in Austin, Texas, but requires a human driver to remain at the helm, prepared to take control if necessary. A sensible precaution, one might add.

Loading widget...

Achieving fully unsupervised FSD is a significant hurdle, and Tesla has missed past deadlines. However, the company’s CEO possesses a tenacious spirit, and if the system can be perfected, a vast fleet of vehicles will be ready to spring into action. A truly exciting prospect.

The second major driver for Tesla is the Optimus robot – an artificial intelligence product currently under development. These general-purpose robots are designed to perform a wide range of tasks, from repetitive chores to dangerous assignments. During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, the company announced plans to release Optimus V3 sometime in the first quarter of 2026.

“It won’t even seem like a robot,” the CEO told analysts. “It’ll seem like a person in a robot suit, which is kind of how we started off with Optimus. It’ll seem so real that you’ll need to poke it, I think, to believe that it’s actually a robot.” A rather bold claim, but one can’t help but be intrigued.

Angel investor Jason Calacanis, speaking at the CES conference in Las Vegas, recently had the opportunity to view Optimus V3 at a company lab and described it as a transformative product. “I can tell you now, nobody will remember that Tesla ever made a car,” he declared. A rather sweeping statement, but one that suggests a significant shift in focus.

The Outlook for Tesla

If Tesla stock is to generate 30x returns or more in the next decade, it will be thanks to unsupervised FSD and the Optimus robot. Both possess breathtaking potential. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter points out that Tesla is getting “very close” to achieving unsupervised FSD, based on improved performance metrics. And Cathie Wood of Ark Invest believes the Optimus robot represents an even greater opportunity than robotaxis.

The CEO himself has suggested that the Optimus robots could generate $10 trillion in revenue, accounting for over 80% of Tesla’s valuation. If these projections prove accurate, then Tesla may very well be a stock that sets you up for life. A most sporting investment, wouldn’t you agree?

Read More

2026-01-20 23:43