Ten Thousand and a Dream

by

They say a fool and his money are soon parted. Perhaps. But a prudent fool—one who understands the exquisite dance between hope and ruin—can at least prolong the separation. The stock market, you see, is not a ladder to the heavens, but a particularly chaotic roulette wheel. And yet, here we are, contemplating the deployment of ten thousand dollars. A sum sufficient to purchase a modest dacha, or, more likely, a fleeting illusion of prosperity.

Let us dispense with the notion of complication. Simplicity, my friends, is the art of concealing cunning. If I were forced to begin anew today, burdened with this ten thousand, I would approach it not as an investment, but as a carefully considered wager. A wager against the prevailing winds of optimism, naturally.

The Index: A Convenient Illusion

The first five thousand, shall we say, are surrendered to the forces of inertia. Passive indexing, they call it. Warren Buffett suggests it. Buffett, a man who has grown rich by exploiting the very inefficiencies the index is designed to smooth over. A delightful paradox, wouldn’t you agree? We shall purchase units in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +0.28%)). Not because it is superior, but because it is…predictable in its mediocrity. A solid foundation upon which to build a more interesting edifice of speculation.

Dollar-cost averaging, naturally. A thousand a month. It’s the equivalent of slowly lowering oneself into a bog, hoping to find solid ground. The expense ratio of 0.03% is, admittedly, almost offensively low. It’s as if they’re begging you to lose money at a reduced rate. The ETF has performed handsomely in the past decade, racking up a 328% return. Driven, of course, by the so-called “Magnificent Seven.” These companies are not magnificent, merely…large. And their success is built on trends—artificial intelligence, cloud computing—that are, in all likelihood, already overvalued. Still, it’s a comfortable enough place to begin, like a well-worn armchair in a railway station.

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The Active Game: A Touch of Madness

The remaining five thousand, however, is where things become…interesting. This, I confess, is a foolish indulgence. A deliberate flirtation with risk. Most sensible people would avoid such endeavors. But I, you see, am not most people. I intend to cultivate the art of stock picking. It’s a skill akin to training fleas to perform Shakespeare—difficult, improbable, and likely to end in disappointment. But the journey, as they say, is the reward—or, in this case, the inevitable losses.

This portion of the portfolio will remain, for the time being, in cash. A war chest, if you will. I shall patiently await opportunities. Companies possessing “economic moats,” they call them. Durable competitive advantages. I prefer to think of them as elaborate traps, designed to ensnare unsuspecting investors. I’ll be looking for pricing power, strong financials, and competent management. Ideally, I’ll acquire shares at valuations that suggest the market has temporarily lost its senses. A rare occurrence, but not impossible.

Eventually, the entire ten thousand will be deployed. And then, the real fun begins. More money will inevitably be added. At that point, I shall face a crucial dilemma: more of the index, or more individual stocks? A question for the ages, or at least, for the next market correction. But ultimately, what truly matters is consistency. And a healthy dose of skepticism. Because in the world of finance, optimism is a dangerous delusion. And a fool with a plan, however flawed, is still a fool—but a slightly more interesting one.

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2026-02-09 18:23