Target, ticker TGT, is up over 20% this year. Which, in the grand scheme of things – wars, famines, the slow heat death of the universe – is… something. The S&P 500? Less so. They had a quarter. It wasn’t terrible. So it goes.
People are asking if it’s time to buy. As if there’s ever a good time. There’s just… time. And money. And the faint, persistent hope that maybe, just maybe, a big box store can defy gravity for a little while.
A Turnaround, of Sorts
Sales were down a bit. 1.5%. Not a catastrophe. Comparable sales dipped 2.5%. But profits… profits were up. They squeezed a few extra pennies out of everything. They always do. It’s the American way. The numbers aren’t exactly shouting “buy,” but they aren’t weeping, either. Which, honestly, is a win these days.
Gross margin expanded. A tiny bit. 26.6% versus 26.2%. It’s like finding a nickel on the sidewalk. Doesn’t solve your problems, but it’s… pleasant. They’re controlling costs. Which is good. Because costs have a way of controlling you.
Key Catalysts (Or, What They’re Hoping For)
They’re leaning into “alternative revenue streams.” That’s what they call it. Basically, they’re selling everything but things. Target Circle 360. Roundel. Sounds like a medieval tournament. But it’s advertising and memberships. And it’s growing. Faster than the actual stuff people used to buy. Which is… telling. So it goes.
The CEO, Michael Fiddelke, says sales are “improving.” They always are, eventually. Or they aren’t. It’s one of the two. He’s predicting 2% growth next year. 2%. That’s… not much. But it’s a number. They’re also forecasting earnings per share of $7.50 to $8.50. Which, if you do the math, is… still not a fortune.
The Bridge to Even Faster Growth (Or, More Spending)
2% growth isn’t good enough, of course. They know that. So they’re planning to spend another $5 billion. A billion more than last year. They’ll be transforming floor plans, training employees, strengthening assortments, accelerating technology. It’s a lot of verbs. And a lot of money. They’re hoping it will accelerate growth. Which is… the point.
They’re talking about AI. Everyone’s talking about AI. It’s supposed to make shopping easier and more personalized. It probably will. Or it won’t. It’s just code, after all. And code is written by people. And people… well, you know. So it goes.
Now, investors have to wait. And watch. And hope. Which is, let’s be honest, most of what investing is. Whether these investments will pay off is anyone’s guess. But they’re betting they will. And that’s… something.
The stock’s cheap. Relatively. 15 times next year’s earnings. And they pay a 4% dividend. Which is… nice. A little bit of income in a world that’s increasingly determined to take everything away from you.
I think it’s a buy. Maybe. It’s not a sure thing. Nothing ever is. But it’s a mildly hopeful story. And in these times, that’s… enough. So it goes.
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2026-03-04 19:02