Strategy & Bitcoin: A 2026 Post-Mortem?

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Right. So, Bitcoin. It was all so…optimistic, wasn’t it? Last year, it felt like anyone with a spare laptop and a vaguely plausible business plan was launching a ‘Bitcoin treasury company.’ It was a bit like the dot-com boom, only with more digital scarcity and, frankly, more questionable accounting. I remember thinking, “This time it’s different!” (I always think that, actually. It’s a flaw. A significant flaw.)

Strategy (MSTR +8.85%), bless their ambitious hearts, were the biggest players. The corporate equivalent of that friend who went all-in on crypto and won’t stop talking about it. They were leveraged, utterly, on the future of Bitcoin, and for a while, it looked…good. Very good. I’ve been studying corporate bubbles for years, and honestly, this one had a particularly shiny veneer.

But then…well, you know. The price of Bitcoin decided to take a rather extended holiday downwards. Forty-five percent down in four months. It’s enough to make even the most seasoned investor reach for the chamomile tea. And it raises the question: is Strategy still a viable investment, or are we witnessing a slow-motion corporate unraveling?

How Does One Value…Hope?

The basic premise of Strategy is, let’s be honest, wonderfully simple. Accumulate Bitcoin. Lots of it. As cheaply as humanly possible. They’ve been remarkably successful at this, actually. According to the CORP-DEPO research (and honestly, the numbers are staggering), they held 713,502 bitcoins as of February. That’s about $50 billion at today’s prices. A significant sum. A very significant sum. It’s like a digital Fort Knox, only…slightly more volatile.

They’ve continued to add to their holdings, of course. Another 1,142 bitcoins just a week after the CORP-DEPO report. That brings the total to 714,644 – over 3% of all Bitcoin in circulation. It’s…a lot. It feels a bit like one person owning a disproportionate share of the world’s gold. Which, in a way, it is.

Here’s the slightly awkward bit. Their cost basis is $76,056 per Bitcoin. The current price? Less than $70,000. That means their holdings are ‘underwater,’ to use the rather clinical financial term. They reported a $12.4 billion loss in Q4 2025. Twelve. Billion. It’s the kind of number that makes you question all your life choices. And possibly consider a career change.

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Unsurprisingly, the stock price has been…suffering. Down about 60% in the last 12 months. It recently hit an 18-month low of $104. It’s making it rather difficult to continue the Bitcoin acquisition spree, given that they usually fund it by issuing more Strategy stock. It’s a bit like trying to build a house of cards on a trampoline.

Buy, Sell, or…Just Hide?

Honestly? It’s hard to make a convincing case for buying Strategy right now. It feels…risky. Very risky. You’d be better off just buying Bitcoin directly and hoping for a recovery. After all, Strategy’s market cap ($40 billion) is now less than the value of its Bitcoin holdings ($50 billion). It’s…strange. It feels like a temporary anomaly, but who knows?

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All these Bitcoin treasury companies are in a bit of a pickle, to be frank. It’s hard to see why anyone would pay a premium to hold their stock. CORP-DEPO identified several other corporate Bitcoin holders – four mining companies, two other treasury companies – and they all look…unappealing. Strategy is a sell in 2026. At least, that’s my professional (and slightly panicked) assessment.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Perhaps I need a vacation.

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2026-02-15 12:02