Starlink: The Only Rocket That Matters

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Last week, I suggested something. That Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO, supposedly coming in 2026, might be a bit of a misdirection. Maybe it’s Starlink that’s going public instead. Honestly, does it really matter? So it goes.

Starlink: The Engine of Something or Other

Let’s look at some numbers, because numbers are all we have, really. In 2024, SpaceX hauled in about $13.1 billion. Not bad, for flinging metal tubes into the void. Then 2025 came along, and things bumped up to $15 billion. Payload Space thinks 2026 will see $23.8 billion. A big jump. Of course, these are guesses. SpaceX isn’t exactly handing out balance sheets. But, well, here we are.

Is that growth rate realistic? Maybe. Especially when you consider where it’s coming from. Starlink. That’s the little network of satellites beaming internet down to… well, to everyone, more or less. In 2025, Payload says Starlink accounted for $10.4 billion of that $15 billion. Nearly 70 percent. They’re predicting $18.7 billion from Starlink in 2026. That’ll be about 79 percent of the total. So it goes.

Contrast that with the rocket launch business, which is growing at a modest 9 percent. It’s almost comical, isn’t it? All that effort, all that engineering, and the money comes from…people wanting to stream cat videos in rural areas. It’s a strange universe.

A Plan, You See

But it wasn’t an accident. Back in 2015, The Wall Street Journal reported on some internal SpaceX documents. They laid out a plan for becoming the most profitable company in space. By 2025, they wanted $36 billion in sales, with a 60 percent operating profit. They knew then that most of that would come from Starlink. And here we are. The rockets are important, sure, but they’re mostly a way to fund the satellite business. So it goes.

The rocket part is getting… commoditized. Other companies are entering the launch business. Competition. It’s what happens. But Starlink? That’s different. It’s a leading position in a new market. A market that’s still growing. And, crucially, a market that can generate a decent profit. It’s not about reaching for the stars, it’s about reliably delivering data.

Subscribers and Such

Starlink subscribers doubled from 2.3 million at the end of 2023 to 4.6 million at the end of 2024. Then doubled again to 9.2 million through the end of 2025. Payload thinks they could double again in 2026, reaching 18.4 million. It’s a growth rate that makes your head spin. Of course, growth is faster outside the U.S., and international customers pay less. Revenue growth is a bit slower than subscriber growth. But, well, what did you expect? So it goes.

SpaceX operates in 155 countries now. It makes sense that growth would be faster in the other 154. Especially if they’re charging less. A little less profit in exchange for a lot more customers. It’s a reasonable trade.

SpaceX is still growing faster than almost any other space company. And Starlink is the reason. It’s a simple story, really. A story about satellites and internet access. A story about how even the most ambitious dreams can be funded by the most mundane needs. So it goes.

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2026-01-31 13:13