Spire Global: A Constellation of Hope and Mild Despair

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A satellite, looking vaguely judgmental.

Spire Global, a company that sends small metal boxes into the heavens to listen to things we can’t hear from down here, has had a year. A year that resembled, if one were being charitable, a particularly enthusiastic game of skittles played during an earthquake. The stock price, shall we say, explored its options. And continues to do so with the unsettling enthusiasm of a ferret in a ball pit. Investors, naturally, require a map. Or at least a sturdy pair of boots.

Spire owns and operates a ‘constellation’ of satellites – a term that makes it sound far more glamorous than it is. These aren’t sleek, chrome cruisers; they’re more like tin cans with exceptionally good ears. They gather data – non-visual data, mind you. Think of it as eavesdropping on the atmosphere and the earth, but from a very long distance. Useful for coordinating air traffic (preventing mid-air collisions, a generally good thing) and, more importantly, for discerning the subtle moods of weather systems.1

The clever bit is size. These satellites are small. Smaller than a loaf of bread, according to management. Though, admittedly, not nearly as tasty. And because they’re small, they’re cheaper to launch. This is a principle known in certain circles as ‘economical celestial eavesdropping’. The data they collect, once gathered, can be sold multiple times. A bit like a particularly good rumour. And recent advances in generative AI have given this data even more…applications.2

A Roller Coaster of 2025

Looking back at 2025, the stock’s performance can best be described as ‘spirited’. It climbed, it dipped, it performed a rather alarming loop-the-loop. It began with a deal to sell its maritime segment – a perfectly sensible move, like selling off the slightly leaky section of your airship – and eliminate some burdensome debt. This deal nearly capsized, requiring a bit of share dilution to stay afloat. A successful legal battle eventually rescued it, but not before a considerable amount of hand-wringing.

With the maritime unit sold, Spire was left with:

  • Weather and climate (predicting whether it will rain, mostly)
  • Aviation (making sure planes don’t bump into each other, see above)
  • Space services (a catch-all term for things that happen in space, usually involving more small metal boxes)

The dispute over the sale delayed the quarterly reports – paperwork, you see, is the bane of all celestial endeavours. And the government shutdown didn’t help, as governments, surprisingly, are often major customers. Whenever things seemed to be improving, a fresh wave of bad news would send the stock tumbling. It was, in short, a masterclass in how to build a business on a foundation of shifting sand.

Investors, therefore, require a degree of fortitude. And a strong cup of tea. Spire is, shall we say, ‘sensitive’ to both good and bad news. It’s a bit like a particularly anxious weather vane.

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A Growth Story Going into 2026

As we enter 2026, Spire boasts a ‘stable’ balance sheet. It ended the third quarter with no debt and $96.8 million in cash. Which is a comforting thought, though it doesn’t necessarily explain where the profits are hiding. Earnings and free cash flow remain stubbornly negative. The challenge, as always, is to keep the coffers from emptying before something profitable wanders along.

Full-year 2025 revenue was projected at $70.5 million, with approximately $70 million contracted to recur in 2026. The company is forecasting $92 million in revenue for 2026 and break-even operating cash flow by year-end. Optimistic, perhaps, but one must admire the ambition.

Prior to selling the maritime segment, Spire actually managed to generate $5 million of free cash flow in Q3 2024. A fleeting moment of glory, quickly followed by the usual challenges. Management had initially predicted positive operating cash flow by the end of 2025, a prediction that, alas, did not materialize.

The government shutdown, naturally, was to blame. It delayed revenue recognition and hampered the ability to secure new contracts. Commercial contracts were scarce. The sale of the maritime unit and the legal dispute didn’t help, but the resolution hasn’t yet translated into a surge of new orders. It’s a bit like shouting into the void and waiting for an echo.

The recent launch of nine satellites for SpaceX is a positive sign. A vote of confidence, not just from a commercial customer, but from a leader in the space industry. Perhaps, just perhaps, the tide is turning. Though one shouldn’t count one’s celestial chickens before they’ve hatched.

Is Spire Stock Worth Buying?

I was initially optimistic about Spire. It’s certainly less risky now that the high-interest debt has been eliminated, which threatened to send the whole enterprise plummeting into the financial abyss.

However, 2025 demonstrated that Spire struggles with sales. It’s vulnerable to external forces, like government shutdowns. It doesn’t seem to generate its own momentum. It’s a bit like a ship without a rudder, drifting aimlessly on the ocean of commerce.

As I write this, the stock has a $400 million market cap and trades near $12 per share, which represents a multiple of 20 based on its one quarter of free cash flow from 2024. Not exorbitant, but not exactly cheap either. And given Spire’s tendency to encounter unexpected setbacks, there’s a strong likelihood it will need to raise capital again in 2026.

Therefore, I’m inclined to observe and wait. To see if 2026 brings a genuine improvement before considering it a buy. It’s a bit like waiting for a star to align. Or, perhaps, for a slightly less bumpy ride.

1

The subtle moods of weather systems are, of course, far more complex than most meteorologists are willing to admit. They involve a great deal of existential angst and a deep-seated resentment of humanity.

2

The applications of this data are, frankly, terrifying. It’s only a matter of time before someone uses it to predict the optimal time to sell slightly used socks.

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2026-02-12 22:22