S&P 500: It’s Not a Guarantee, Okay?

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Look, everyone’s running around talking about the stock market like it’s some kind of benevolent deity. “Long-term growth!” they chirp. “Historical returns!” It’s infuriating. It’s not a guarantee, people. It’s just…less likely to be a complete disaster than, say, opening a hot dog stand in January. And even that has potential, honestly.

You see these corrections, these little dips? They call them “the price of admission.” Admission to what exactly? A system designed to make you feel clever for a few years before inevitably reminding you that you’re just throwing money into the void? I had a similar experience with a gym membership. A complete waste.

I remember this whole Trump tariff thing a while back. The market freaked out. For, like, a week. A week. Then it went right back up. People acted like it was some kind of brilliant recovery. It was just… normal market behavior. Like a pigeon landing on a statue. It happens. But everyone’s acting like they predicted it. They didn’t. Nobody predicted it.

And now they’re pushing these ETFs. Exchange-Traded Funds. It’s just another way to complicate things. “Diversification!” they shout. “Instant exposure!” It’s just a basket of stocks. A basket. I prefer my fruit in a bowl, thank you very much. And the sheer number of them! 4,300! Who has time to sift through 4,300 anything? It’s a conspiracy to overwhelm you, I’m telling you.

So, this Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Apparently, it’s the golden child. Mirroring the S&P 500. Groundbreaking. They’re saying it’s never had a 20-year period with a negative return. Never. That’s what they say. I’m suspicious. Something that consistently works that well is inherently unsettling. It’s unnatural. It’s like a perfectly symmetrical face. It just feels…off.

They show you these charts. “If you invested $100,000 and put in $655 a month…” Like it’s that simple! Like everyone has $100,000 just lying around! And $655 a month! That’s a car payment! Or a decent cable bill! And then they expect you to believe you’ll be a millionaire in 20 years. It’s…optimistic, let’s say.

Year Ending Balance Year Ending Balance
Year 1 $117,327 Year 11 $406,598
Year 2 $136,237 Year 12 $451,956
Year 3 $156,877 Year 13 $501,460
Year 4 $179,404 Year 14 $555,490
Year 5 $203,990 Year 15 $614,460
Year 6 $230,824 Year 16 $678,821
Year 7 $260,111 Year 17 $749,067
Year 8 $292,076 Year 18 $825,735
Year 9 $326,963 Year 19 $909,412
Year 10 $365,040 Year 20 $1,000,739

And they have to add these disclaimers. “Doesn’t include the net expense ratio.” Of course it doesn’t. They never do. It’s always a hidden fee. It’s like ordering a coffee and then being charged extra for the cup. And then they say the dividends will offset it. Oh, that’s convenient. They conveniently forget to mention it until the very end.

They’re comparing it to SPDR. SPDR! Another acronym. Another thing to remember. And they’re arguing over fractions of a percent. 0.03% versus 0.0945%. It’s microscopic! It’s like arguing over which shade of beige is superior. It’s just… exhausting.

Look, I’m not saying it’s a bad investment. I’m just saying don’t act like it’s a sure thing. Nothing is a sure thing. Especially when people are trying to sell you something. And don’t get me started on the charts. All those lines and colors. It’s just designed to confuse you. It’s visual noise. It’s like a Jackson Pollock painting pretending to be financial advice.

The whole thing just feels… precarious. Like a house of cards built on top of a wobbly table. And frankly, I have better things to worry about. Like finding a decent bagel. That’s a real challenge, let me tell you.

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2026-01-19 12:13