S&P 500: A Three-Year Binge?

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Right. So, the S&P 500. It’s been… well, let’s just say it’s been on a bit of a run. A 78% climb over three years. Which, logically, is good. But logic and markets rarely seem to hang out together, do they? It’s all very well for the financial commentators to talk about ‘record highs’ and ‘investing looking like a breeze’ but honestly, it feels… precarious. Like a beautifully iced cake balanced on a wobbly table. I keep expecting someone to sneeze.

I mean, the long-run average is around 10%, isn’t it? Which feels… sensible. This, however, is not sensible. 2025 was the worst year in the last three, at only 16%. The sheer audacity. 2024 and 2023 were both over 20%. It’s like the market decided to have a mid-life crisis and buy a sports car. I keep telling myself it’s just a temporary blip, but then I remember history. And history, as I’ve learned, is rarely kind to optimists.

Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. (Don’t tell them I told you.)

Been There, Seen That: 2021 and 1999

Okay, so I did some digging. Because staring at the numbers isn’t quite enough to quell the anxiety. Apparently, this kind of thing – three years of seriously outperforming – doesn’t happen that often. The last two times? 2021 and 1999. Which, if you ask me, are not exactly reassuring benchmarks.

Status – Failing.

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Selling Isn’t Always the Answer (But Re-Evaluating Is)

Look, I’m not saying we’re headed for another crash in 2026. The 90s taught me that timing the market is a fool’s game. If I’d sold at the end of 1997, after three years of 20% returns, I’d have missed out on the rallies in 1998 and 1999. But honestly, the thought of being caught on the wrong side of another bubble fills me with dread.

So, what’s the answer? Well, I’ve been thinking. Maybe it’s not about selling everything, but about being a bit more… discerning. Re-evaluate your holdings. Get rid of the overpriced stocks. Invest in things that actually make sense. Dividend stocks, perhaps. Something that might offer a bit of a buffer if things go south. Or just… accept that markets are inherently unpredictable and try to maintain a healthy level of skepticism. It’s a work in progress.

Number of times I’ve considered a career change: 17. Current career: Still trading (for now).

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2026-01-16 16:02