Right. So, electric vehicles. Still a thing. Still predicted to be the thing. Sales up 20% last year, apparently. Which is… good. Honestly, it’s all a bit overwhelming. It’s not like I understand the intricacies of kilowatt-hours, or the difference between nickel-manganese-cobalt and… whatever else they’re using now. But I’m trying to keep up. For investment purposes, naturally.
The current obsession, it seems, is lithium batteries. Specifically, making them better. Longer range, more durable. It’s all very sensible. And a lot of money is being thrown at it. Which, historically speaking, is always interesting.
Enter QuantumScape. Been tinkering with solid-state batteries since 2010. A decade! It feels like only yesterday I was investing in Betamax. They promised something revolutionary. Solid-state, better range, fewer fires. The usual. And for a while, the stock actually went up. A brief, shining moment. Then, you know, the usual post-IPO wobble. But then, last year, they announced a breakthrough in production. A crucial process perfected! It felt… hopeful. Like maybe, just maybe, I’d finally found the next big thing.
They’re still only shipping prototypes to Volkswagen’s PowerCo – a subsidiary, naturally – but it suggested commercial production could start around 2027. First mover advantage! That’s what they call it, isn’t it? Being first. It sounded so… promising. Straits Research reckons this solid-state sector could grow at 36.4% a year until 2033. 36.4%! It’s practically printing money. Or at least, it seemed to be.
But then… everyone else started tinkering.
Which brings me to the slightly depressing part. It turns out a lot of other people are tinkering too. A lot. It’s like when you finally decide to take up pottery, and then you discover everyone else in your book club has been secretly sculpting masterpieces for years.
Take BYD, for example. A Chinese company. They’ve been quietly developing their own solid-state batteries, and apparently, they’re testing packs that can do 900 miles on a single charge. 900! I haven’t even driven 900 miles total this year. And they’re not making a fuss about it. Just… doing it. Which is… efficient, I suppose. And, crucially, they’re a lot bigger than QuantumScape. Which, historically, tends to matter. A lot.
Then there’s Toyota. Decisively entering the race, as they say. Committing to bring their own solid-state batteries to market by 2027, installing them in their EVs by 2028. Very precise. Very… Japanese. And then Geely, the parent company of Volvo, saying they’ll have their first fully integrated solid-state battery completed this year. This year! It’s all happening so fast.
It’s just… a lot of competition. A lot. Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 7. Hours Spent Refreshing Stock Charts: 11. Number of Stress-Induced Chocolate Biscuits Consumed: Incalculable.
The Problem With Being First (And Underfunded)
Now, I’m not saying QuantumScape won’t be able to make a decent battery. They might. But the major car companies are all developing their own solutions. They won’t need QuantumScape’s. BYD and CATL – their battery development partner – already make battery packs for other EV companies. And they’re likely to keep doing so, even with solid-state technology. It’s a bit like… well, it’s like trying to sell umbrellas to the British during a particularly rainy summer. It’s not that your umbrellas are bad, it’s just… everyone already has one.
Which brings me to the investor perspective. QuantumScape is a $5 billion company, and it’s years away from turning a profit. And it’s up against much bigger, deeper-pocketed rivals. It’s… not ideal. It’s a bit like bringing a water pistol to a tank battle.
So, no. QuantumScape isn’t a growth stock worth buying to start 2026. At least, not for me. There are far more promising prospects out there. I’m adding QS to my long-term watch list. And I’m going to go and lie down. And possibly eat more chocolate biscuits. Number of Panicked Emails to Financial Advisor: 3. Current Emotional State: Mildly Terrified.
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2026-02-08 17:52