Shocking New Recession Warning: US Policies in the Hot Seat

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Banking colossus JPMorgan Chase is now giving a 60% chance that we’ll all be donning our economic floaties this year because of (brace for it) “disruptive” U.S. policies. Yes, apparently the world’s best-kept secret is that new tariffs and trade wars can send everyone into a collective fit – who knew? 🤷‍♀️

According to Reuters, JPMorgan decided to up the planetary recession odds from a “friendly” 40% to a more “exciting” 60%. Why? Because the U.S. is rolling out new trade policies, slapping tariffs on China and the European Union, and basically rattling swords like it’s the Middle Ages. 🎉

As stated by the firm in a note seen by Reuters,

“Disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year. The effect… is likely to be magnified through (tariff) retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment and supply-chain disruptions.”

JPMorgan also slid in a side note that the tariffs’ sting might be softened by possible interest rate cuts from the Fed. (Because nothing like a good old rate cut to make everyone cheer up.)

Meanwhile, other heavyweights like Goldman Sachs and HSBC are also passing around cheery predictions of potential downturn, although they’re a bit less convinced we’ll be building hordes of panic bunkers in the near future.

An HSBC analyst reportedly told Reuters,

“Our equity market implied recession probability indicator suggests equities are already pricing in (about) 40% chance of a recession by the end of the year.”

Goldman Sachs, not to be outdone in the gloom department, lifted its recession odds to 35% (up from 20%), adding that inflation minus food and energy will likely be 3.5% this year. Translation: squeaking past the Fed’s 2% goal with all the grace of a cat at bath time. 🐱🚿

Just for extra pizzazz, President Donald Trump went ahead and signed an executive order last week imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods entering the U.S. – plus a proclamation of “reciprocal tariffs” targeting multiple countries, with China scoring a top rate of 54%. Because, hey, if you’re going to do trade wars, might as well go big. 😬

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2025-04-06 20:02