Shay Capital Sells GEO Stake Amid 40% Decline

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On November 14, the astute New York-based Shay Capital, ever the connoisseur of market tides, divested 927,016 shares of GEO Group (GEO 1.33%), a transaction that left its position diminished by a tidy $22.75 million. A stroke of fiscal elegance, one might say, though the stock’s 40% descent since last year suggests a more pragmatic approach.

The fund, in its quarterly SEC communiqué, revealed a reduction in its GEO Group holdings, now amounting to a mere 159,799 shares valued at $3.27 million. Such a maneuver, while seemingly abrupt, is less a flight of fancy than a calculated ballet with the specter of volatility. The change in position, an estimated $22.75 million, mirrors the capriciousness of the market itself.

The GEO Group now constitutes a minuscule 0.28% of Shay Capital’s $1.15 billion in 13F reportable assets-a fraction so small it might as well be a whisper in a tempest. Among its top holdings, FTAI, PCT, AZ, NVRI, and NFE reign supreme, their collective presence a testament to the fund’s eclectic palate.

As of Friday, GEO shares linger at $16.31, a 42% plunge from their 12-month zenith. A stark contrast to the S&P 500’s 15% ascent, this decline is less a failure of the company than a reflection of its peculiar, politically charged nature.

GEO Group, a purveyor of secure facilities and reentry services, operates across three continents, its offerings a curious blend of rehabilitation and surveillance. With a market capitalization of $2.31 billion and a revenue of $2.53 billion, it is a behemoth in its domain, though its net income of $237.33 million belies the tumult of its operations.

The company’s recent quarter, while ostensibly robust, revealed a curious truth: its $173.9 million net income was largely a product of a $232 million pre-tax gain on asset divestitures, not the fruits of its core business. Adjusted net income, a more modest $0.25 per share, tells a story of resilience rather than revelry.

Yet, for a fund of such stature, trimming GEO to a fraction of a percent is not a sign of alarm but a masterclass in risk management. After all, as the adage goes, “A fund’s strength lies not in its largest holdings, but in its ability to discern when to retreat.”

For long-term investors, this serves as a gentle reminder: while explosive quarters may dazzle, it is the consistency of cash flow that truly commands admiration. A lesson in fiscal prudence, if ever there was one.

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2025-12-29 16:08