Sandisk & the Ten-Bagger Fantasy

by

Man looking at computer specs

My uncle, bless his heart, is convinced he can predict the stock market by observing the migratory patterns of Canadian geese. He sends me charts, meticulously drawn in crayon, highlighting correlations between V-formation flyovers and the Dow Jones. I try to be supportive, mostly because he makes a mean potato salad. But lately, he’s been fixated on flash memory, specifically, Sandisk. He’s convinced it’s going to “ten-bag,” which, in his lexicon, means become unimaginably wealthy. And honestly, after looking at the numbers, I’m starting to understand his goose-based optimism. A thousand dollars, just over a year ago, when they split from Western Digital? It’s now… well, it’s enough to buy a very nice goose statue, at least. Fifteen-six-hundred and seventy dollars. It feels… irresponsible, almost.

Everyone’s talking about the surge in demand for these little memory chips. Apparently, we’re all just… storing things. Photos of our cats, videos of questionable dances, digital copies of recipes we’ll never use. And now, artificial intelligence, which seems to require a truly alarming amount of storage. My sister, who works in tech, explained it to me once, but I mostly just nodded and pretended to understand the difference between RAM and ROM. It’s all just… bits, isn’t it? And those bits are getting expensive. The manufacturers, predictably, can’t keep up. They’re saying the shortage could last until 2026. That’s a long time to be out of cat photos.

I’ve learned, over the years, that chasing “ten-baggers” is a fool’s errand. It’s like trying to catch a particularly elusive dust bunny. Diversification, they tell you, is the key. Spread your risk. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. But then you picture a basket overflowing with flash memory, and the analogy feels… inadequate. Still, the idea of relying solely on Sandisk feels… precarious. My neighbor, Mr. Henderson, made a killing on a tech stock once. He bought a yacht. It sank. He’s back to mowing his lawn now.

The Flash Storage Market & My Growing Anxiety

Phison Electronics, a company with a name that sounds like a villain from a science fiction novel, predicts this shortage could last a decade. A decade! That’s roughly the lifespan of a goldfish. And Precedence Research claims the solid-state drive market could jump by 5.5 times in the next ten years, generating $305 billion in revenue. That’s a lot of storage. Enough to store every embarrassing moment of my childhood, I suspect. And the manufacturers aren’t exactly rushing to build new factories. They’re probably too busy counting their money. Or, you know, observing geese.

Sandisk finished their fiscal year 2025 with $2.99 per share in earnings. Which, when multiplied by the Nasdaq-100’s forward earnings multiple of 25.3, suggests a stock price of $2,050 in the next couple of years. It’s all so… theoretical. I tried explaining this to my mother, but she just asked if it meant she could finally afford a new dishwasher. Which, honestly, is a much more pressing concern.

Sandisk Earnings Chart

So, will Sandisk jump by ten times its current value? I have no idea. I’m not a financial analyst. I’m just a man who occasionally buys stock based on the recommendations of his goose-obsessed uncle. But it has the potential to deliver outstanding gains. Or, you know, just become another cautionary tale. Either way, I’m starting to feel a strange urge to back up all my photos. Just in case.

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2026-03-05 00:52