Rocket Lab: A Launch to Nowhere?

So, everyone’s obsessed with space now. It’s the new thing. Like sourdough bread in 2020. And SpaceX, naturally, is leading the charge. They’re building these… gigantic rockets. Apparently, they’re considering putting data centers in orbit. Data centers! Who needs that? It’s just… excessive. And you can’t even buy the stock. It’s infuriating. They dangle this whole space economy thing in front of us, and then… nothing. Just a tease.

Which brings us to Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab (RKLB 7.50%). They’re trying, I’ll give them that. They’re launching things. Smaller things, admittedly. But launching. And they’ve managed to do it without, you know, exploding. Most of the time. It’s a start. They’ve grown revenue, they say, by 900% in five years. Okay. Fine. But is that good growth? Is it the kind of growth that justifies… well, anything?

Ambitious Expansion Plan (or is it?)

They launch these little rockets, the Electrons. Apparently, they’re very precise. Which is good, I guess, if you’re sending something fragile into the void. They also make satellites now. Which is… diversification. Or overreach. It’s hard to tell. They’re generating over $100 million a quarter from this space systems segment. Which sounds impressive, until you realize that’s spread across… everything. It’s a lot of wires and coding for that amount of money.

And then there’s Neutron. The big one. The rocket that’s going to “compete with SpaceX.” It’s delayed, naturally. Everything is delayed. They’re hoping for a launch in 2026. 2026! That’s years away. Years! And they expect us to just… wait? It’s like ordering a sandwich and being told it’ll be ready next Tuesday. I’d ask for a refund.

Where will Rocket Lab stock be in 10 years?

They say Neutron will generate $50 million in revenue per launch. $50 million. That’s… a number. It’s about 10% of their current revenue. So, one successful launch, and they’re… slightly less behind? It’s a low bar, frankly. They envision dozens of launches a year. They envision expanding their space systems capabilities. They even hint at building their own satellite constellation. It’s a lot of envisioning. It’s all very… optimistic.

The problem, and this is a big problem, is the price. $40 billion market cap. For a company that barely makes $550 million in revenue. And they’re going to dilute shareholders. Of course they are. It’s the circle of life in the stock market. They’ll issue more shares, and the value of your existing shares will… diminish. It’s infuriatingly predictable. They say they’ll reach $10 billion in revenue. Maybe. But margins in this industry are notoriously thin. Thin margins. Thin profits. Thin hope.

Look, I’m not saying it’s a terrible company. I’m just saying… it’s a lot of hype for a lot of money. And frankly, I’m starting to suspect this whole space thing is just a very elaborate scheme to separate us from our money. I wouldn’t touch this stock with a ten-foot pole. You’re better off investing in something… reliable. Like municipal bonds. Or maybe just stuffing your mattress with cash. At least then you know where your money is.

2026-02-22 23:13

Ambitious Expansion Plan (or is it?)

Where will Rocket Lab stock be in 10 years?

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