Rocket Lab: A Calculated Hesitation

My uncle, a man who once attempted to corner the market on commemorative spoons, always said the trick to investing wasn’t picking winners, but identifying companies that were good at managing disappointment. It’s a surprisingly astute observation, and one that’s been circling my mind as I consider Rocket Lab (RKLB 7.50%) ahead of their earnings report on February 26th. The stock’s recent dip—nearly 20% in the last month—isn’t necessarily a sign of impending doom, but a pre-emptive bracing for the inevitable. People seem…anxious.

I suspect a rally is coming, not because of some groundbreaking technological leap, but because the market is, at its core, a creature of habit. It prefers predictability, even if that predictability is just a well-managed letdown. And Rocket Lab, a small rocket company with aspirations of being…well, not small…is particularly good at setting expectations it can then modestly, almost apologetically, exceed.

Rocket Lab by the Numbers (or Lack Thereof)

Let’s be honest. The valuation is…ambitious. A price-to-sales ratio north of 62, and profits that remain stubbornly theoretical? It’s the kind of number that makes my accountant wince, and my accountant has seen things. I’m not suggesting it’s wrong, precisely. In this era of space tourism and satellite constellations, a little irrational exuberance is to be expected. But it does mean that any positive news, even the slightest, will be magnified, while any hint of trouble will be treated as a five-alarm fire.

I don’t necessarily expect them to “beat earnings” in the traditional sense. The analysts, those tireless pollsters of the predictable, are forecasting another loss for the fourth quarter. But they’re also anticipating a 35% jump in sales, and, crucially, a near doubling of missions launched. More launches, more revenue…it’s basic arithmetic, really. And yet, the market seems to be discounting it, perhaps because it’s grown accustomed to the idea that space travel is expensive, and profits are…optional.

Reading Between the Launch Pads

A lower stock price, coupled with improved sales, is a perfectly reasonable recipe for a post-earnings bump. But the real catalyst, I suspect, will be clarity. Last year, Rocket Lab promised us the Neutron reusable rocket by the end of 2025, then…didn’t. They’ve been hemming and hawing ever since, caught between the desire to impress and the reality of engineering. My aunt, a retired librarian, used to say that a delayed promise is a broken promise, but I think she was mostly just upset about overdue books.

I’d be genuinely shocked if they don’t address the Neutron timeline this week. A firm launch date—even one pushed back to Q2 2026—would be a welcome relief. The market despises uncertainty. It’s like a particularly fussy houseguest. A few more months of delay might disappoint some, but a clear roadmap, however protracted, is far preferable to perpetual ambiguity.

I’m leaning toward Q2, if only because it feels…safe. It allows for a buffer, a little wiggle room in case something goes wrong. And in the world of rocketry, something always goes wrong. Rocket Lab has a chance to remove a significant cloud of uncertainty this week. I predict the stock will respond accordingly. Not with a soaring launch, perhaps, but with a steady, almost dignified, climb. And that, in the long run, is often more sustainable.

2026-02-23 12:02

Rocket Lab by the Numbers (or Lack Thereof)

Reading Between the Launch Pads

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