Right. Robinhood. (HOOD 3.21%). It’s had a bit of a run, hasn’t it? Up seventy percent in the last twelve months. Which, let’s be honest, feels… optimistic. Especially given the general state of things. Still, investors are impressed. Revenue growth, expanding margins, profits… it’s all very tidy. The question, naturally, is whether to join the party before the fourth-quarter earnings report on February 10th. I’m staring at the numbers, and I’m feeling a distinctly twitchy sort of… curiosity.
How Does the Game Work?
They disrupted things, didn’t they? Commission-free trades, a streamlined app, a dash of gamification. It appealed to a very specific demographic – the ones who thought meme stocks and crypto were a legitimate investment strategy. And, to be fair, it worked. Millions of new retail investors flooded in back in 2020 and 2021. It was… chaotic. And profitable, for a while.
Then reality hit. Rising interest rates. Investors suddenly remembering that, perhaps, caution isn’t a weakness. Growth slowed in 2022. But they’ve been clawing their way back. Cooling rates, new features, that subscription-based Gold platform… they’re trying to build an ecosystem. A very shiny, slightly unsettling ecosystem.
The Numbers, Darling
From 2020 to 2024, revenue more than tripled – from $959 million to $2.95 billion. Funded customers doubled, from 12.5 million to 25.2 million. They actually turned a profit, using generally accepted accounting principles. Which, you know, is a start. Though I always approach accounting principles with a healthy dose of skepticism.
The first nine months of 2025 saw revenue up 65% year over year to $3.19 billion, and net income up 158% to $1.28 billion. That’s driven by organic growth – 26.8 million funded customers at the end of the third quarter – and the acquisition of TradePMR. Smart move, that. And the Gold subscribers – those who get access to interest-free margin and other perks – are up 77% to 3.9 million. They’re clearly hooking people in. It’s… effective.
So, Should You?
Analysts expect revenue and earnings per share to rise 53% and 30% for the full year. From 2025 to 2027, they’re forecasting CAGRs of 19% and 18%, respectively. Optimistic, aren’t they? It’s a maturing business, so growth will inevitably slow. And 37 times this year’s earnings? It doesn’t exactly scream “bargain.”
However, look at it this way: an enterprise value of $80.8 billion, but only 23 times adjusted EBITDA. That’s… less terrifying. It cuts through some of the noise from acquisitions and stock-based compensation. It’s still a gamble, naturally. Everything is. But if you believe Robinhood can continue to lure retail investors away from the established players and lock them into this expanding ecosystem of banking and fintech services… well, a small nibble before the earnings report might not be the worst idea. Just don’t tell anyone I said that. I have a reputation to maintain.
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2026-02-03 20:14