Robertson’s Bond Play: A Little Risky, Don’t You Think?

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Right. So, Robertson Opportunity Capital just dipped a toe – or maybe a whole foot, honestly – into MarketAxess. Twenty-eight thousand eight hundred and thirty shares. Roughly $5.23 million. It’s a move. A calculated move, they’d have you believe. I’m just… skeptical of anyone who says they’re calculating. Especially when it comes to bonds. Bonds are boring. And boring usually means trouble. But, hey, who am I to judge? I’ve made worse decisions after two glasses of wine.

It’s a new position for them, making up just under 2% of their portfolio. Small potatoes, really. But enough to get people talking, and enough for me to poke around and see what’s actually going on. Because let’s be real, nobody buys something without expecting something to happen.

Here’s the rundown on what else Robertson is holding, because, you know, diversification is key… or is it just a way to spread the risk? Either way:

  • Somnigroup International: $39.27 million (14.3% of AUM) – Sleep aids? Seriously?
  • The Williams Companies: $26.04 million (9.5% of AUM) – Pipelines. Thrilling.
  • Alphabet: $23.74 million (8.6% of AUM) – Okay, predictable.
  • Arch Capital Group: $19.39 million (7.0% of AUM) – Insurance. Because everyone loves insurance.
  • Copart: $13.17 million (4.8% of AUM) – Salvage auctions. Now that’s a bit more interesting.

MarketAxess itself? Well, the stock’s been… underperforming. Down 13.7% over the last year. Ouch. Underperforming the S&P 500 by a cool 28 percentage points. Double ouch. But here’s where it gets interesting. February 9th saw shares priced at $171.23. And, apparently, a decent Q4 earnings report. A potential turnaround? Maybe. Or maybe just a temporary blip before the inevitable slide continues. I’m leaning towards the latter, if I’m honest.

Let’s break down what MarketAxess is, for those of you who haven’t been following the thrilling world of electronic bond trading. They’re basically a platform. An electronic platform, for institutional investors. They trade bonds. Lots of bonds. U.S. investment-grade, high-yield, Treasuries, municipal, emerging market, Eurobonds… you name it, they trade it. They make money on fees, data, execution services… the usual. They serve the big players – asset managers, hedge funds, broker-dealers. Efficient, anonymous, liquid access to the bond market. Sounds… efficient. And terrifyingly impersonal.

They operate at scale, leverage proprietary tech, all-to-all trading model… all the buzzwords. They’re trying to expand their product suite, deepen client connectivity… basically, they want more trades. And more data. It’s always about the data, isn’t it? They have a robust network, deliver efficient trade execution… it’s all very… impressive. And probably soul-crushing for anyone who actually enjoys human interaction.

So, why is Robertson buying in now? It’s a good question. After a decade of trading at a frankly ridiculous price-to-free cash flow ratio, things slowed down. The stock dropped 70% from its peak. But that Q4 report… it showed some signs of life. Block trading volume up 29%. Portfolio trading up 41%. Dealer-initiated volume up 32%. They’re expanding into “untapped” areas of the bond market. Electronifying the… well, you get the idea. It’s about modernization. And larger transactions. Higher upside. It’s… clever. I’ll give them that.

Currently, MarketAxess is trading at 20 times free cash flow. Still relatively low, considering the recent success. It’s on my watchlist, definitely. And, get this, they’ve been growing their dividend payments for 16 straight years. Yielding 1.75%. A decade-long high. So, if you’re looking for a stable, boring, potentially profitable investment… this might be it. But honestly, where’s the fun in that?

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2026-02-10 22:42