So, Rivian (RIVN 3.76%). Electric trucks. It’s a whole thing. They IPO’d in November 2021 at $78, which, let’s be honest, felt less like a valuation and more like a dare. Now it’s trading around $15. The initial buzz was understandable – actual vehicles, delivered! Plus, the power couple of corporate backing: Amazon (AMZN 1.48%) and Ford (F 1.21). It was like the electric vehicle version of a celebrity supergroup.
But then…reality. Production targets missed with the grace of a toddler attempting ballet. Losses that could fund a small nation. And a valuation that suggested they were selling unicorn tears. Ford, bless their pragmatic hearts, bailed on a joint project and quietly sold off its shares. It’s always a little sad when corporate romances end. Like watching a rom-com where the meet-cute involves quarterly earnings reports.
Why Did the Stock Take a Dive?
Rivian makes three things: the R1T pickup (for people who want to save the planet and haul things), the R1S SUV (slightly less hauling, slightly more lifestyle), and electric delivery vans for Amazon (which, let’s be real, is probably keeping the lights on). They’re planning to launch the R2 SUV in 2026, which is…a while. It’s like announcing a new season of your favorite show, but it doesn’t air for three years. You start to lose the thread.
When they went public, they confidently predicted 50,000 vehicles in 2022. They delivered about half that. Supply chain issues, naturally. It’s the go-to excuse for everything these days. In 2023, they doubled production, which is good. They delivered 50,122 vehicles. 2024 was a bit of a wobble – production dipped – but deliveries actually increased to 51,579. Apparently, they’re getting better at, you know, delivering. They’re currently forecasting 40,000 to 46,000 for 2025. The numbers are…modest. Like a polite request, not a bold statement.
What Could Happen in the Next Five Years?
Rivian’s hoping the R2 will be the thing that gets them unstuck. They’re also selling “clean energy regulatory credits” – which sounds suspiciously like a company finding loopholes to make money – and trying to upsell upgrades and subscriptions. It’s the Disney+ model for electric trucks. They’ve even partnered with Volkswagen (VWAP.Y 1.94%) on new EV architecture. It’s like a corporate arranged marriage. Hopefully, there’s less drama than on 90 Day Fiancé. They’re also building a plant in Georgia, which, if completed, will triple production capacity. That is, if they can find enough skilled labor who aren’t already building robots for Amazon.
Analysts are predicting revenue growth of around 31% annually through 2027. That’s…ambitious. The stock currently trades at less than three times this year’s sales. If they hit those targets, keep growing at 20% a year through 2031, and the market gets generous, the stock could theoretically rise sixfold. That’s a big “if.” It requires scaling up production, gaining market share, and avoiding any major scandals involving exploding batteries. It’s a lot to ask, but hey, in the world of electric vehicles, anything is possible. Or, you know, they could just become another cautionary tale about hype and overvaluation. Either way, it’ll be a good story.
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2026-01-30 21:24