Rivian: A Risky Play, Even After the Jump

Right. Rivian. Everyone’s suddenly all bright-eyed about them, haven’t they? Shares did a little jig last week, all thanks to some optimistic delivery forecasts for 2026. Honestly, it’s enough to make a cynic like me…slightly less cynical. Briefly. Don’t get your hopes up.

Still, down about 15% year-to-date? That’s a proper tumble. Makes you wonder if this bounce is a genuine recovery, or just a desperate attempt to look like it isn’t sinking.

The Numbers, As Rivian Tells It

So, the big news: 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles this year. Ambitious. It’s the R2 SUV doing the heavy lifting, apparently. A “lower-priced” model. Which, let’s be real, still isn’t cheap. But it’s cheaper than the R1, which costs about the same as a small island. They’re planning a slow ramp-up – one production shift to start, then another, then another. Classic. Because rushing things never ends badly, does it?

They’re talking about appealing to a “wider audience.” Translation: people who aren’t billionaires. Smart move, I suppose. Though, if they really want a wider audience, maybe they should consider making a car that…actually fits in a parking space. Just a thought.

Revenue took a 26% hit last quarter. A bit of a wobble, wouldn’t you say? Fewer vehicles produced, fewer delivered. They were busy preparing for the R2, which is code for “trying to avoid a complete disaster.” Automobile revenue down 45%. Ouch. But software and service revenue doubled. Which is…something. Apparently, a chunk of that comes from a joint venture with Volkswagen. The Germans always know how to monetize things. It’s a talent, really.

They managed a 9% gross margin, which is…fine. I guess. And they’re aiming for 20% auto gross margin in 2027. A lofty goal. Like me attempting a marathon. It’ll probably end in tears. Adjusted EBITDA loss widened. Free cash flow? Negative. A cool $1.14 billion down the drain. They’re burning cash faster than I go through a box of chocolates. Which, admittedly, is very fast.

Looking ahead, they’re projecting more negative adjusted EBITDA. More capital expenditures. More cash burning. Honestly, it’s a wonder they haven’t started selling company snacks to stay afloat.

So, Should You Buy?

Look, let’s be honest. Rivian is still a gamble. A big, shiny, expensive gamble. 2026 is going to be…interesting. The R2 launch could be a catalyst. Or it could be a spectacular flop. Who knows? If you’re the risk-tolerant type, and you enjoy watching your money potentially vanish into thin air, then go for it. A small position, mind you. Don’t go all in. Unless you have a spare island you’re willing to mortgage. Even after this post-earnings jump, this isn’t a stock for the faint of heart. Or the sensible investor. But hey, who am I to judge? I once bought a timeshare in the Bahamas.

2026-02-20 21:54

The Numbers, As Rivian Tells It

So, Should You Buy?

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