Rivian: A Cautionary Tale of Wheels and Wishful Thinking

The conveyance known as Rivian (RIVN 2.51%) has been experiencing a slight… gravitational adjustment. Not a crash, mind you, but a rather insistent settling downwards. Before this week even properly began, its stock had already dipped a concerning two-and-a-bit percent. The Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists¹ are, shall we say, reassessing their expectations. It’s a classic tale, really. Build something shiny, promise the moon, and then discover that the moon is rather further away than anticipated.

As confirmed by the meticulous scribes at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Rivian’s shares have lost approximately 11.2% of their value since last Friday’s closing bell. Which, in the currency of investor confidence, is roughly equivalent to a dragon losing a few scales.

Analysts Apply the Brakes – Or Are They Just Looking for a Parking Spot?

Monday brought unwelcome news. Wolfe Research, those arbiters of vehicular destiny, downgraded Rivian from ‘Peer Perform’ (which, translated from Analyst-Speak, means ‘Meh’) to ‘Underperform’ (which is, decidedly, not ‘Meh’). They’ve also affixed a price target of $16, suggesting a potential 17% descent from Friday’s closing price of $19.22. Their reasoning? Rivian continues to operate at a loss – a state known in ancient texts as ‘spending more than you’re earning’² – and there’s a suspicion that demand for electric carriages might not be quite as boundless as previously imagined, especially with the arrival of the R2 model.

UBS, never one to be left out of a perfectly good downgrade, followed suit, reducing Rivian from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Sell’. They did, generously, raise their price target from $13 to $15. Which is like offering a slightly less soggy biscuit with your tea. It’s still a soggy biscuit.

Is This a Good Time to Park Your Funds with Rivian? Or Will You Get a Flat Tire?

Now, it’s not all doom and gloom. Piper Sandler, on January 8th, optimistically adjusted their price target upwards from $14 to $20. This proves, if nothing else, that analysts can hold entirely contradictory opinions simultaneously. It’s a talent, really. Like being able to balance a teacup on your nose while reciting poetry.

There is potential for Rivian to accelerate, not just in 2026, but beyond. But, and this is a rather important ‘but’, potential is like a dragon’s hoard – impressive to look at, but utterly useless if you can’t actually access it. Investors would be well-advised to conduct their own due diligence before entrusting their funds to a company that appears to be navigating a particularly bumpy road. After all, a shiny carriage is no good if it’s missing a wheel.

¹ The Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists is a notoriously secretive organization, rumored to operate on a complex system of hunches, caffeine intake, and the occasional reading of tea leaves. Their primary function is to transform promising ideas into either fortunes or spectacular failures.
² In ancient times, operating at a loss was considered a sign of poor management, or possibly a deliberate attempt to irritate the tax collectors. Modern economists have, of course, complicated matters considerably.

2026-01-16 01:12

Analysts Apply the Brakes – Or Are They Just Looking for a Parking Spot?

Is This a Good Time to Park Your Funds with Rivian? Or Will You Get a Flat Tire?

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