Rigetti’s Day Trip & The AI Spending Spree

So, Rigetti Computing. The stock went up today. Eighteen point three percent, if you’re keeping track. Which, honestly, who is? I mean, I am, professionally. It’s my job to stare at these little green and red numbers until my vision blurs and I start assigning personalities to the ticker symbols. But still. Eighteen point three percent. It felt… optimistic. And, frankly, a little unsettling. Like a stray dog suddenly deciding to tap dance.

It wasn’t anything Rigetti did, you understand. No miraculous breakthrough in quantum entanglement. No sudden realization that they could power the entire Eastern Seaboard with a slightly modified toaster oven. Just… the market decided to be nice for a day. A collective sigh of relief, or maybe just a temporary lapse in judgment. It reminded me of my Aunt Mildred, who once accidentally donated her entire collection of porcelain dolls to a dog shelter. A momentary miscalculation with surprisingly cheerful consequences.

The Recovery (and the Spending)

The whole thing happened against this backdrop of… well, let’s call it “aggressive infrastructure investment.” The Nasdaq had been taking a beating – nearly 4.5% over four days – because everyone suddenly remembered that maybe, just maybe, spending obscene amounts of money on artificial intelligence isn’t a sustainable business model. Who knew? It’s like realizing that building a castle out of marshmallows isn’t the most structurally sound idea.

Alphabet is apparently planning to drop somewhere between $175 and $185 billion on capital expenditures by 2026. Which is… a lot. It’s the kind of number that makes you question your life choices. Amazon followed suit, promising $200 billion this year. Sixty percent more than last year. They’re just throwing money at the problem, hoping it sticks. Meta and Microsoft are doing the same. Collectively, these companies are projected to spend over $560 billion by 2026. It’s enough to make you want to start a small, artisanal toothpick factory.

Should You Buy Rigetti? (A Question I’m Increasingly Afraid to Answer)

Which brings us back to Rigetti. The problem with these quantum computing companies, the pure-plays as they call them, is that the payoff is… distant. Very distant. Their current market capitalization – over $5 billion – implies that breakthrough success is just around the corner. A few years, tops. I’ve been staring at financial statements for a long time, and I can tell you with a reasonable degree of certainty that this is… optimistic. It’s like betting on a snail to win the Kentucky Derby.

There’s a fundamental disconnect between the hype and the reality. We’re all caught up in the promise of quantum computing, but the actual technology is still years, maybe decades, away from being commercially viable. And in the meantime, these companies are burning through cash at an alarming rate. I keep expecting someone to point out that the emperor has no clothes, but everyone seems too busy admiring the shimmering potential. It’s exhausting, frankly. I might just take up macramé.

2026-02-07 01:23

The Recovery (and the Spending)

Should You Buy Rigetti? (A Question I’m Increasingly Afraid to Answer)

Read More