Rigetti: Quantum Dreams & Empty Pockets?

by

Ah, Rigetti Computing ([RGTI +3.72%]). A name whispered with reverence in certain circles, and with a healthy dose of skepticism in others – precisely the sort of stock that separates the discerning investor from those who merely chase rainbows. The company, a pure-play devotee of the quantum faith, has enjoyed a run of late, its share price ascending like a poorly secured weather balloon. A contract here, a partnership there (Nvidia, naturally – everyone needs a friend with deep pockets), and suddenly we’re looking at a 184% leap in a year. A most impressive feat, though one wonders if the ascent is fueled by actual achievement, or simply the hot air of expectation.

The market capitalization now hovers around $8.4 billion. Forty-nine times this year’s expected sales, if one believes the forecasts. A valuation that suggests Rigetti isn’t merely building computers; they’re minting gold from thin air. One is reminded of a certain swindler who once attempted to sell the Eiffel Tower – repeatedly. Is this a genuine leader of the quantum revolution, or a particularly polished illusion?

The Quantum Leap: More of a Shuffle?

The stock, it must be said, has been positively incandescent. The underlying business, however, presents a more subdued picture. Last quarter saw sales of roughly $1.95 million – a downturn from the previous year’s $2.38 million. The first three quarters combined tallied $5.22 million, a decline from $8.52 million. A sobering reminder that even in the realm of theoretical physics, gravity still applies. One suspects potential customers are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach, preferring to observe the construction of systems with a more substantial number of qubits before committing their funds. A perfectly rational strategy, wouldn’t you agree?

Rigetti, being a fledgling enterprise in a nascent industry, deserves a degree of leniency. Yet, the disparity between hype and reality is becoming increasingly… noticeable. It’s akin to admiring a beautifully crafted blueprint while the foundation remains unlaid. The enthusiasm, while admirable, feels somewhat… premature. One can’t help but suspect that the stock is running on fumes of anticipation, rather than the solid fuel of demonstrable success.

For those seeking exposure to the quantum realm, a more prudent approach might be advisable. D-Wave Quantum, with its quantum-annealing technique, appears to be on a more grounded path towards near-term commercial viability. And then there’s Alphabet, a behemoth with the resources to conquer any technological frontier, and a comforting cushion of established businesses to absorb any quantum-related missteps. Investing in Rigetti, at this juncture, feels a bit like betting your fortune on a horse with a magnificent pedigree, but a pronounced limp.

Read More

2026-01-19 21:52