Rigetti Computing (RGTI +2.87%). The stock went up, then it came down. Happens to everything, eventually. It touched $58, a brief, shining moment, and now it’s around $16. So it goes.
If Things Go… Well
The optimistic scenario requires a lot of luck, and a little bit of physics. Rigetti needs breakthroughs. Real ones. The kind that translate into contracts. Not just promises, but actual money flowing in. Enough to move the needle beyond the $7.5 million they managed in the last year. A tall order, wouldn’t you say?
They have strengths, yes. They build their own machines, which is… something. And they have around $450 million in cash. That buys you time. Time to figure things out. If they can actually make commercially viable quantum computing happen in the next few years, they might just be okay. It’s a big “if,” though. A really big one.
If Things Don’t Go As Planned
Quantum computing has been “just a few years away” for a long time now. Decades, really. The executives and PR teams are very good at saying that. But time keeps moving, doesn’t it? If it turns out quantum computing is still a long way off – and there’s every reason to suspect it might be – Rigetti has a problem. A survival problem. Companies like Alphabet, IBM, and Microsoft can afford to wait. They have other things going on. Rigetti? Not so much.
The Bottom Line
By 2030, I suspect we’ll be in the same place we are today. Quantum computing still just over the horizon. A beautiful, shimmering mirage. If that’s the case, and I’m leaning that way, I wouldn’t want to be holding Rigetti stock at these prices. It’s a gamble, really. And the house usually wins. So it goes.
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2026-02-25 04:32