Rigetti: A Quantum Quandary

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Rigetti Computing, a name that trips rather jauntily off the tongue, has been causing a bit of a stir in the investment world, hasn’t it? A dashedly popular pick, you see, but one that’s recently taken a bit of a tumble, finding itself some seventy percent south of its all-time high. A spot of bother, certainly, but is it merely a temporary setback, or a sign that the market has decided quantum computing isn’t quite the next big thing? A most intriguing question, and one that requires a bit of careful consideration, old boy.

The question before us is this: where will Rigetti’s stock be in three years’ time? A bit of a crystal ball exercise, naturally, but let’s have a go, shall we?

Rigetti Faces a Rather Stiff Competition

Quantum computing, you see, isn’t some sleepy little niche. It’s a positively bustling arena, crammed with companies all vying to be the top dog. Rigetti is one of the contenders, naturally, but it’s a bit like entering a hurdle race when one hasn’t quite mastered the art of jumping.

There are, broadly speaking, two sorts of firms in this game. The first are the pure plays, like Rigetti, starting from scratch and relying on the kindness of investors and a bit of good fortune. The second are the established tech giants, with pockets overflowing with cash, and a decided advantage in the funding department.

One might assume the money would all be on the big boys, and in a normal situation, one would be quite right. However, these chaps are currently rather preoccupied with artificial intelligence, throwing a great deal of cash at that particular hobby horse. This, you see, leaves a bit of an opening for a nimble upstart like Rigetti, provided it can actually deliver a working solution.

And that, alas, is where things get a touch sticky.

Understanding quantum computing isn’t a picnic, you know. However, most of these companies offer a sort of benchmark test, a way for investors to compare apples and oranges, as it were. It’s called the two-qubit gate fidelity test, and it essentially measures how accurate a calculation is after a couple of processing steps. The higher the number, the better.

Rigetti recently announced that its 108-qubit system is taking longer to achieve the desired 99.5% fidelity than anticipated. A bit of a delay, you see. Its smaller, nine-qubit system manages a respectable 99.7%, but one needs to perform better with the larger models to be truly relevant.

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And it’s considerably lagging behind IonQ, another pure-play competitor. IonQ achieved a rather impressive 99.99% fidelity with its system back in October. They’re currently building a 256-qubit system, due in 2026, and are leaving Rigetti eating their dust, so to speak.

If Rigetti continues to stumble, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock price take another tumble, or even vanish altogether, either through bankruptcy or acquisition. A most unfortunate outcome for investors, naturally, but a distinct possibility if they don’t pick up the pace.

Rigetti needs to demonstrate some genuine progress before I’d consider it a worthy investment. The market’s current skepticism, I suspect, isn’t irrational; it’s a perfectly sensible reaction until Rigetti can show some real improvement. One wouldn’t want to throw good money after bad, you know. A bit of caution, a dash of prudence – always a sound policy in these matters.

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2026-02-07 16:13