Rigetti: A Calculation of Uncertainties

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The matter of Rigetti Computing, like the others – D-Wave, IonQ – presents a curious accounting. The shares, as of this observation on the fourth of February, two thousand and twenty-six, have undergone a multiplication of value, a factor of 1,420 percent over the preceding fifteen months. A substantial increase, to be certain, though D-Wave boasts a marginally greater expansion – 1,910 percent over the same period. IonQ, meanwhile, trails at a mere 770 percent. These figures, of course, are not expressions of inherent worth, but rather the oscillations of a collective, perhaps misguided, enthusiasm.

The prevailing expectation, it seems, is that quantum computation will, in due course, disrupt established industries. Encryption, genetic analysis, financial forecasting – all are anticipated to yield to the probabilistic calculations of these machines. A neat proposition, if one disregards the considerable distance between anticipation and realization. The precise mechanism by which this disruption will occur remains, predictably, obscured by layers of technical jargon and optimistic projections.

Rigetti, rather than focusing on a singular aspect of this potential, has elected to offer a comprehensive suite of solutions. Hardware manufacturing, system design, software management, cloud-based delivery – a complete package, as it were. The logic, presumably, is that deep-pocketed enterprises prefer a single point of responsibility, a single entity to blame when the inevitable complexities arise. A sound business strategy, perhaps, but one that requires an astonishing amount of capital and an even more astonishing tolerance for risk.

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The Question of Trajectory

The inquiry, however, is not concerning Rigetti’s ambitions, but the fate of the share price. A perfectly reasonable question, though one to which a definitive answer proves elusive. It is as if the market operates under a set of rules known only to itself, a labyrinthine bureaucracy where value is determined by sentiment rather than substance.

One might have anticipated a cooling of the fervor in twenty-twenty-five, following the initial surge at the close of twenty-twenty-four. Instead, the shares continued to appreciate, gaining 45 percent for the year. A few incremental advances within the quantum computing sector – minor calibrations, fleeting demonstrations – were sufficient to sustain the upward momentum. The chart, predictably, exhibited a degree of volatility. A single, unfavorable headline, a minor technical setback, could, of course, reverse the trend. The fragility of it all is… remarkable.

Therefore, to predict whether Rigetti will ascend or descend in the near future is an exercise in futility. The company remains profoundly unprofitable, and has demonstrated a consistent propensity for diluting shareholder equity through the issuance of additional shares. Moreover, the valuation ratios are, to put it mildly, exorbitant. At 757 times sales, Rigetti renders even the most fashionable market darlings – IonQ, D-Wave – appear reasonably priced by comparison. It is a precarious position, a house built on foundations of hope and borrowed capital.

One wishes Rigetti well in the long term, but the share price appears poised for a significant correction in the coming year or two. Commercial viability remains, at best, a decade away. And companies that consume capital at this rate do not always survive the wait. The arithmetic, unfortunately, is unforgiving.

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2026-02-07 03:12