Alright, settle in folks, because we’re about to talk about Redwire Corporation (RDW +7.09%). Yes, that Redwire. The company that decided space infrastructure wasn’t enough, so they added military drones to the mix. A bit like adding a fez to a tuxedo, if you ask me. Anyway, today their stock shot up 7% by noon Eastern. A perfectly respectable ascent. But is it going to stay up? That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? Or, in this case, the… well, you get the idea.
And who do we thank for this little burst of enthusiasm? Truist Securities, naturally. These are the people who know things. Or, at least, they say they know things. Which, in the stock market, is often close enough.
Truist Hearts Redwire (and Possibly Has a Financial Interest)
So, Michael Ciamoli, the analyst over at Truist, upgraded Redwire to “buy” this morning. A bold move, I tell you! He’s predicting a 66% upside. 66%! That’s practically a guarantee in this business. (Don’t quote me on that.) Why the sudden affection? Well, apparently, about a third of Redwire’s programs are finally running at full speed. It’s like they spent years assembling a giant Rube Goldberg machine, and now, finally, the last marble is dropping. And the rest of their programs are… progressing. Slowly. But progressing! Which is good. We like progress.
Ciamoli believes this will boost their gross profit margins. From a measly 9.2% in 2025 (according to S&P Global Market Intelligence – those guys are always watching) to a whopping 23.3% in 2026! That’s a jump! A leap, even! It’s like they discovered a secret stash of space gold, or maybe they just got a really good deal on duct tape. Who knows?
Could Redwire Turn Profitable? Don’t Hold Your Breath (But Maybe Pack a Snack)
Now, let’s not get carried away, folks. Operating costs ate up 57% of Redwire’s revenue in 2025. 57%! That’s practically highway robbery! And 25.5% in 2024. Pick your poison. Even with a 23.3% gross profit margin, they’re still underwater. It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom. You can pour all the water you want, but you’re not getting anywhere. Analysts polled by S&P Global predict they’re still a couple of years away from actual, honest-to-goodness GAAP profitability. A couple of years! That’s an eternity in stock market time. You could build a space colony in that time! (Probably.)
The silver lining? 2027 might be the year they finally achieve positive free cash flow. Positive! Free! Cash! It’s a beautiful phrase, isn’t it? It means they’ll have actual money coming in, not just promises and projections. At 3 times sales, the stock was already looking… intriguing. And with positive free cash flow on the horizon, it might be time to take a flyer. Just don’t bet the farm. Unless you have a really big farm. And a strong stomach.
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2026-03-09 19:23