Quantum Stocks: Hitchhiking the Hype Superhighway (and Other Tales of Rigetti)

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This morning, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) shares seized the opportunity to behave irrationally in public, leaping nearly 10% higher before most investors had managed so much as a first cup of tea. The proximate cause: a Wall Street analyst, one Quinn Bolton (of Needham, who presumably knows the price of everything and the value of nothing), raised his price target and whispered sweet buy-ratings in investors’ ears, spurring a flurry of high-frequency optimism.

Quantum Momentum and Other Metaphysical Phenomena

Bolton’s new price target—a mathematically precise $18, for those who like their optimism double-spaced—suggests that anyone with a share of Rigetti can now imagine themselves precisely 15% wealthier (on paper, which, as everyone in finance knows, is merely the waiting room for disappointment). The justification: the quantum computing sector is apparently gathering momentum (a word beloved of physicists and salesmen, as it means everything and absolutely nothing, depending on who is listening).

Bolton draws particular inspiration from two recent government adventures: DARPA’s Quantum Benchmark Initiative (QBI) and the Department of Energy Quantum Leadership Act. The former—QBI—resides within DARPA, an agency the U.S. government constructed in a fit of existential dread after Sputnik, to make certain that Americans are never caught by surprise by anything more significant than the bill at a Manhattan cocktail bar. QBI’s mission, if it chooses to accept it (it has), is to ponder whether a quantum computer could one day deliver more “computational value” than it costs to build and operate—all by the grand year 2033. (For those keeping score, this is currently in “Stage A”, which presumably involves large piles of technical jargon, coffee, and PowerPoint.)

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As for the Department of Energy Quantum Leadership Act, it is a bipartisan bill (which means it appeals to both sides of the aisle, thus has twice as many people to disappoint when reality fails to cooperate). Should it leave the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in one piece—traditionally no guarantee—it promises to shower $2.5 billion over five years onto quantum research. (In governmental terms, this is the equivalent of picking a random lottery winner among researchers and hoping the next Einstein isn’t working at the local coffee shop.)

Quantum Buzzwords: Please Mind the Speculation Gap

There is, it must be said, a terrific amount of noise surrounding quantum computing stocks—a cacophonous festival of hope, hype, and acronyms (in fact, acronyms now outnumber atoms by a ratio of 3:1). Rigetti itself is hailed as a “leader,” which raises hackles in the skeptical observer, as one suspects the field is crowded with leaders but regrettably short on followers—no surprise, given that the actual market for quantum computing currently lies somewhere between “minor footnote” and “legendary beast”.

The key charm of these quantum ventures, apart from their apparent ability to untangle vast computational knots (or, at least, to promise to do so in PowerPoint presentations and investor calls), is their uncanny knack for generating significant capital losses at very little actual revenue. Rigetti and its rivals command multibillion-dollar valuations—on a scale normally reserved for companies that, at the very least, have working products or, failing that, someone who answers the phone. Quantum computers, meanwhile, remain the financial equivalent of Schrodinger’s cat: simultaneously alive (in investors’ imaginations) and unprofitable (in every practical sense).

by all means, put a toe into the quantum pool if the mood strikes—just be aware that it very much resembles a towel cupboard from the outside, and there is no guarantee anyone remembered to install a floor. 🪐

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2025-08-05 03:42