Quantum Fancies and the Coming Chill

by

Rigetti Computing (RGTI +2.60%) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS +1.63%). The very names hum with a promise of… something. A future, no doubt. A future presently being paid for with the currency of investor credulity. They’ve gifted some with returns, yes, but let us not mistake a temporary fever for genuine health. I suspect a rather unpleasant reckoning is brewing, a cold compress applied to the overheated brow of speculative excess.

Even at these elevated altitudes – Rigetti at sixteen, D-Wave a touch over twenty – the valuations bear no discernible relation to reality. It’s as if someone whispered a captivating fiction into the ears of the market, and the market, weary of accounting, simply believed it. One anticipates a rude awakening, a sort of financial hangover accompanied by a profound sense of foolishness.

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A Numerical Absurdity

Rigetti, in the last twelve months, managed to generate $7.5 million in revenue. A modest sum, one might say. Yet, its market capitalization soars above $5.3 billion. The arithmetic is… peculiar. D-Wave fares little better, boasting $24.1 million in sales against a capitalization exceeding $7.2 billion. One pictures the bean counters weeping into their abacuses. It’s a grand illusion, a conjuring trick performed with other people’s money.

Both enterprises, let it be stated plainly, are hemorrhaging funds. They burn cash with the enthusiasm of a pyromaniac. Their survival depends upon a technological breakthrough of such magnitude that it borders on the miraculous. One awaits the arrival of a benevolent deity, or at least a particularly clever engineer.

The optimistic narrative, of course, hinges on the delivery of genuinely useful quantum computing. A noble aspiration, to be sure. But timelines, as any seasoned cynic knows, are elastic things. The year 2026, so confidently predicted by the hopeful, feels… optimistic. A decade, or even more, seems a far more reasonable estimate. One suspects the market is operating under the delusion that progress is inevitable. It isn’t. It requires effort, ingenuity, and a considerable amount of luck.

Unless you possess the patience of Job and a truly boundless appetite for risk, I suggest a discreet exit. Sell now, before the inevitable correction. Before the air escapes from this particularly flamboyant bubble. One can always find more sensible investments. Perhaps in land. Or reliable, if unglamorous, plumbing fixtures. These, at least, provide a tangible return. Unlike promises whispered on the wind.

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2026-02-20 16:22