Rigetti Computing (RGTI 5.98%) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.75%). Two companies chasing a ghost. A very expensive ghost, naturally. Everyone wants to build the future, but the future, as usual, isn’t paying the bills. So it goes.
Different Paths to Nowhere, Quickly
Rigetti builds quantum systems and rents out access. Think of it as a very exclusive, very cold, very quiet timeshare. They’re mostly in the lab, tinkering. Income comes in fits and starts. Lumpy, as the accountants say. A company can’t run on lumps. Not for long, anyway.
D-Wave tries to sell “hybrid” systems. Quantum plus regular computers. A bit of magic dust sprinkled on the mundane. It smooths out the income a little, which is nice. But it doesn’t change the fact that they’re selling promises, not profits. A company can’t run on promises. Not forever.
I’d lean towards Rigetti, if forced to choose. They’re aiming higher, even if they’re more likely to fall further. At least they’re trying to build something genuinely new. Most investors are interested in quantum because of the potential, not the current reality. And reality, as always, is a bit of a letdown. So it goes.
The Numbers, Such as They Are
Let’s look at the damage, shall we? Numbers don’t lie, though they can be awfully misleading. Here’s the accounting of futility:
| Company Name | Revenue (TTM) | Free Cash Flow (TTM) | Cash and Equivalents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti Computing | $7.5 Million | ($67.6 Million) | $447.0 Million |
| D-Wave Quantum | $24.1 Million | ($54.8 Million) | $836.2 Million |
D-Wave gets the nod, not for making more money, but for having a longer runway before they need to beg for more. Survival is the name of the game, and these companies are playing a very long game. What really matters is how long they can delay the inevitable dilution of shareholders. A company can’t run on hope. Not indefinitely.
The Problem with Time
The real problem is this: useful quantum computing is a long way off. The kind of computing that actually solves problems, not just exists as a science project. Some optimists think it’s a few years away. They’re probably wrong. So it goes.
Morningstar figures five to ten years for early commercialization. General-use quantum computing? Twenty years, give or take. And at the current rate of spending, neither company can make it that long without repeatedly selling off pieces of itself. A company can’t run on borrowed time. Not forever.
A Slightly Smarter Investment
Neither of these companies is worth the current price tag. Multi-billion dollar valuations for companies that haven’t yet figured out how to make a profit? It’s a bit much, even for the future. So it goes.
If you want a piece of the quantum action, look at Alphabet. They have the resources to fund quantum research indefinitely while Rigetti and D-Wave fight over scraps. They can afford to play the long game. And in the grand scheme of things, that’s all that really matters. A company can run on indifference. It’s surprisingly effective.
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2026-03-02 10:02