Quantum Computing: A Penny Farthing in the Digital Age?

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Right then. IBM, Alphabet, and a scattering of start-ups, bright-eyed and possibly deluded, are attempting to coax quantum computing out of the laboratory and into the, shall we say, real world. A considerable amount of investor enthusiasm has bubbled up, naturally, because the promise of revolution is a powerful draught indeed. It’s just that revolutions have a habit of demanding more than just enthusiasm and a handful of venture capital. They tend to require, well, results.

What Sets Quantum Computing Apart (Or Doesn’t)

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT +3.42%), a particularly ambitious alchemist in this digital gold rush, has decided to take a different tack. While most are building bigger and more complicated spellbooks – sorry, computers – they’re focusing on what they describe as ‘imminent solutions’. In other words, things that might actually generate revenue before the heat death of the universe. They’re peddling quantum semiconductors – thin-film lithium niobate photonic integrated circuits, to be precise – and the software to make the whole contraption whirr and click. Apparently, it’s all very flexible and applicable to high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.1

It’s a compelling narrative, isn’t it? Polished, well-presented… and possibly a story woven from particularly fine spider silk. One suspects that the laws of thermodynamics, and indeed, basic accounting, are being gently… encouraged to look the other way.

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The Basic Math Doesn’t Add Up (And Rarely Does)

Let’s examine the company’s finances, shall we? Because numbers, unlike marketing brochures, rarely lie. Over the last twelve months, Quantum Computing Inc. generated approximately $546,000 in revenue. That’s… not much. Especially when its market capitalization currently hovers around $1.87 billion. It’s like attempting to build a cathedral with a handful of pebbles. And hoping it will house a deity.

Meanwhile, they’re spending tens of millions annually on development. A perfectly reasonable investment, of course, if one believes in the imminent arrival of a functioning quantum future. But there’s little evidence to suggest this expenditure will yield anything more than a slightly more sophisticated hole in the budget. The one bright spot? A rather substantial $555 million in cash reserves. Enough runway to keep the illusion aloft for a while, at least.2

How did they amass such a fortune with so little incoming revenue? Stock sales, naturally. The time-honored tradition of turning air into gold. They’ve issued over $840 million in additional common stock in the last year. While they might not need to repeat the exercise immediately, it’s clear they’re not averse to diluting shareholder value. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.

More Red Flags Than a May Day Parade

Beyond the numbers, I place considerable weight on management. Not just their ability to execute, but their judgment, their honesty, and their communication with the public. Quantum Computing’s management team has a fondness for making rather grand pronouncements that, upon closer inspection, appear to be constructed from wishful thinking and carefully worded ambiguity. They tend to… embellish the company’s capabilities.

Consider their press releases. They frequently imply deeper commercial relationships than actually exist. Most of their contracts consist of one-off research grants and prototyping exercises. Interesting, certainly, but hardly sustainable, meaningful commercial contracts. It’s like mistaking a sparkler for a beacon.

And it’s reflected in the top line. Despite claiming to have real, revenue-generating products, they’re getting precious little traction. The market, it seems, isn’t entirely convinced by the narrative.

The Bottom Line (And It’s Looking Rather Thin)

Is Quantum Computing stock going to zero? I believe there’s a reasonable probability. At the very least, I anticipate it will significantly underperform the market. This isn’t a stock I would recommend adding to your portfolio. Unless, of course, your portfolio consists entirely of speculative bets and a profound sense of optimism. And even then, perhaps consider investing in something a little more… solid. Like a well-built bridge. Or a reliable pair of boots.

1 The precise application to cybersecurity remains somewhat unclear. Apparently, quantum entanglement is involved. Which, frankly, sounds terrifyingly inefficient for password protection.
2 One suspects a significant portion of this cash originated from investors eager to be on the ‘right side of history’. A noble sentiment, but rarely a sound investment strategy.

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2026-02-15 21:22