Proto Labs (PRLB +19.09%)… Jesus. They had a quarter. A quarter, people. The market, predictably, went ABSOLUTELY BONKERS. Up nineteen percent this morning? Nineteen! Like some sort of digital fever dream. They beat expectations, you see. Little numbers dancing on a screen. Earnings. Sales. The usual corporate kabuki. But let’s not mistake a temporary surge for actual… traction.
The analysts, those perfectly coiffed vultures, were expecting thirty-four cents a share. Thirty-four! They got forty-four. FORTY-FOUR! And sales clocked in at $136.5 million, a decent bump from where they were. Beating the lines, top and bottom. It’s enough to send the suits into a frenzy, popping champagne and preening. But I’ve seen this movie before. It ALWAYS ends badly.
Twelve percent year-over-year growth in Q4. Not terrible. Not exactly revolutionary. GAAP earnings? Let’s not dwell on GAAP earnings. Those are for accountants and people who enjoy staring into the abyss of financial statements. They scraped together twenty-five cents a share. A profit, yes, but a fragile, temporary reprieve. They flipped from a loss, which is… something. A momentary stay of execution.
Full-year sales were up six percent. Six! The earth did not move. Earnings? Eighty-eight cents a share. Thirty-three percent growth. Sounds impressive until you realize we’re talking about 3D-printed plastic and the fleeting whims of the manufacturing sector. It’s all smoke and mirrors, I tell you. SMOKE. AND. MIRRORS.
The one number that actually gave me pause? Free cash flow. A measly $59.7 million. A thirteen percent decline. Thirteen! They’re burning cash, people. Burning it! Like some sort of Silicon Valley bonfire. And nobody seems to notice. Or care. They’re too busy chasing the next shiny object.
So, is Proto Labs a buy? Don’t even ask. 2026 is shaping up to be a carbon copy of 2025. More of the same. They’re forecasting six to eight percent sales growth. Six to eight! That’s barely keeping pace with inflation. Q1 sales are expected to be… similar to Q4. Groundhog Day with 3D printers. And GAAP profit? Seventeen to twenty-five cents a share. Less than Q4. LESS!
At sixty-two bucks a share, this is a 70 P/E stock growing in the high single digits. High single digits! And with declining free cash flow. It’s a bubble, people. A beautiful, terrifying bubble. If I were a betting man—and let’s be honest, I am—I’d be selling into this rally. Selling. HARD. Before the whole thing implodes. Because implosions, my friends, are rarely pretty.
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2026-02-06 18:42