As a seasoned crypto investor with over two decades of market experience under my belt, I find Lyn Alden’s five-year outlook both insightful and intriguing. Her analysis of various asset classes is thorough and well-researched, making it an essential read for any savvy investor.
In the September 2024 issue of her newsletter, Lyn Alden, a well-known investment strategist, presented a preliminary five-year forecast. She discussed various asset classes such as U.S. and foreign stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin. To begin with, she expressed a somewhat pessimistic perspective on significant U.S. stock indices, explaining that they are currently overpriced. She also mentioned that these indices are already heavily invested in by households, which could make future growth difficult. However, Alden noted that among smaller or more cyclical U.S. stocks, there are still undervalued options with promising potential for the future.
Regarding global equities, Alden expressed a more positive perspective. She pointed out that potential Federal Reserve interest rate decreases in 2024 might offer an advantage for international stocks over U.S. stocks, a situation that hasn’t been seen for some time. Alden emphasized that while it’s not guaranteed, her prediction is that a significant shift in asset allocation trends could be imminent. This is why Alden thinks it’s essential to include a portion of international stocks within a diversified investment portfolio.
Regarding government bonds from developed markets, Alden showed a more reserved outlook. She highlighted that U.S. Treasury notes are currently yielding approximately 3.7%, but with money supply usually expanding at an annual rate of around 7%, preserving buying power becomes difficult. Furthermore, she warned about the projected $20 trillion in net Treasury debt expected to enter the market over the next ten years as a significant worry. Although Alden conceded that the long end of the yield curve could be advantageous for trading, she advised against passively holding a long position on it.
Instead, Alden held a positive perspective towards inflation-indexed U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly five-year ones that offer around 1.7% more than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In her opinion, these notes could be a sensible choice for the protective section of an investment portfolio. She additionally cited T-bills as another defensive asset, albeit expressing a preference for other options, yet considering them superior to numerous alternatives.
Gold played a significant role in Alden’s perspective. She noted that the valuable metal had experienced a substantial surge in 2024, although she admitted it could be technically overbought temporarily. However, she underscored that many indicators still suggest gold is underrepresented and stands to gain from the anticipated U.S. interest rate reduction period. Consequently, based on this analysis, Alden continued to hold a positive viewpoint towards gold for a five-year timeframe.
Ultimately, Alden shifted her focus towards Bitcoin, likening it to a market indicator closely tied with global liquidity levels. She predicted this link would remain strong and voiced an optimistic viewpoint regarding Bitcoin’s future performance over the coming five years. However, she urged caution when setting portfolio allocations for this asset due to its notoriously high volatility, emphasizing the need to consider its erratic price fluctuations.
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2024-09-10 17:12